Redrawing - good or bad.
The forecast of MA with such a period for a small horizon does not allow guessing the direction of price movement accurately enough. The direction can be guessed if the forecast is accurate enough and the length of the forecast is close to the MA period. IMHO these two conditions are mutually exclusive in case of linear forecasting.
The forecast of MA with such a period for a small horizon does not allow guessing the direction of price movement accurately enough. The direction can be predicted if the forecast is accurate enough and the length of the forecast is close to the MA period. IMHO these two conditions are mutually exclusive in case of linear forecasting.
Firstly 3000 is an example for especially stubborn people. The period should have been omitted from your answer.
But OK, - the position is generally correct, but let's say that :
1) The probability of the prediction coming true ( hitting the given interval ) > 0 .
2) No prediction is a prediction that does not come true, that is its accountability = 0
Now, in the light of the obviousness presented, let's analyse the original premise once again.
1) The probability of the forecast coming true (falling within a given interval) > 0 .
2) No forecast is a forecast that does not come true, i.e. its probability of coming true = 0.
Now in the light of these evidences let's analyze the original message once again.
All the same, it's a useless fact.
I asked for a reason. The point is that if the last bar is re-drawn, it is half the trouble, but if changing values of C, H and L of the last (current) bar changes all the indicator drawing, then this indicator is ABSOLUTELY useless in construction of advisers, but may be useful for visual analysis or even prognosis.
*** Have you ever watched the TMA? Or are you thinking in the abstract? If you haven't, what's the point of telling me how much it overdraws? You're saying "just a little"... :))
**
And the TMA is just as an example of what I've been watching lately. You don't have to watch anything if you don't want to. I'm not advertising anything, even more so. I already told you - I'm not selling anything. :))
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then ten bars ahead of the redraw boundary it can be 99% accurate.
It's a beautiful fact, but useless.
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grell 18.04.2010 12:17
No - you're not quite right - if you for example take a MA with a period of 3000, then five or ten bars ahead from the edge of the re-draw it can be 99% accurate. It will be that way in the future. It means that you do not want it to be such. Can you see the difference?
:) That's why it's useless. Please explain. :) And then I'll explain why it's 100% useful. :)
***
Yes again - TMA (iML3) doesn't redraw PRACTICALLY (in time, not value) even on short sizes. :))