I am looking for an EA that never see's more than a 15% DD and yields 25% per yr.
I don't know whether it exists or not, but I think it's achievable. You've got to write an EA that lets profits run but severely cuts losses (and also doesn't suffer from long strings of repetitive losses).
ES,
Maybe revise your view point.. How about a portfolio of EA's that work in different markets. Ranging/Trending. Remember the basic tenet of portfolio theory is to diversify to reduce risk.
So what I suggest is to setup a handful of EA's using various methods ( Volatility Breakout, Ranging (exhaustion), and trending) across several non-correlated currencies.
Each one will make possibly 10% profit or less but combined your return can be upwards of 25% and at the same time you will be reducing your drawdowns by implementing different strategies that make money in various market conditions.
I have been working on this sort of portfolio for quite a bit of time, it works out well by using standard portfolio theory.
Doc..
whatever it takes. Thanks for your post..I also agree about the ranging...trending conclusion...
My criteria stands...if it is a basket of pairs...of EA's....I have clear rules...(but I do not want one EA to carry the weight of others..there comes a point and a time to evaluate, so my viewpoints are stubborn here. I would simply prefer not to trade a trending EA when the instrument is trending..I do not have to trade!...but no one knows how to predict a trend or a range)
I currently trade some my own portfolio and I also have some managed accounts that I oversee in my portfolio of my own money and have diversified into different instruments over the years. When a manager or a system breaches my criteria whether I trade it or he does...whether its a signal service or an EA...it is out..thus I find myself looking for a place to put my money. This brings me to my dilemma, I have yet to find an EA (s) that I can plug into my picture..
I like to break up my portfolio this way:- 25% Equities (conservative medium-term portfolio of dividend yielders...I trade this using zecco.com)
- 10% Futures (speculative, currently I am flat though...no time to trade this as it is discretionary manual trading over at Open E-Cry)
- 10% Options (speculative through autotrading services over at ThinkorSwim)
- 15% Forex (speculative portfolio or basket necessary..through managers...EA's, Autotrading...etc. Forex is the most challenging and interesting to me)
- 40% Cash (at around 6% APR)
- Commodities ( I have 0% there thus far..can't figure out how or who to trade em')
ES.
ES,
Maybe revise your view point.. How about a portfolio of EA's that work in different markets. Ranging/Trending. Remember the basic tenet of portfolio theory is to diversify to reduce risk.
So what I suggest is to setup a handful of EA's using various methods ( Volatility Breakout, Ranging (exhaustion), and trending) across several non-correlated currencies.
Each one will make possibly 10% profit or less but combined your return can be upwards of 25% and at the same time you will be reducing your drawdowns by implementing different strategies that make money in various market conditions.
I have been working on this sort of portfolio for quite a bit of time, it works out well by using standard portfolio theory.jimven,
Well..I am still searching...believe me I am doing the time on this...I have found a website filled with hundreds of EA's and I printed it out like a directory...and I am checking them off one by one..I should be finished in 5 years!!! Thus my thread here...Maybe I can get lucky and someone can save me some time...
ES
P.S. I think I nailed what many people are looking for..as the subscriptions and views are rising to this thread. look.. I do not have to have amazing yields..I am in the "school of thought" that successful, consistently, profitable traders look at DD first, to benchmark the robustness of a system.
P.P.S. sometimes I think the programmers here in the tsd community are looking for high yield first...then they try to "dial it down" to an acceptable DD...they seem to go in reverse to attack the dilemma...
I don't know whether it exists or not, but I think it's achievable. You've got to write an EA that lets profits run but severely cuts losses (and also doesn't suffer from long strings of repetitive losses).
Well, from a straight systems development point of view I don't know if there is any other way to attack the problem. You have to have a trade before you can manage your DD, so programming an EA where it is the first priority may be impossible, short of going for random entries and having some absolute rules as far as losses are concerned. But I am a mediocre programmer at best, maybe someone with some more experience would like to comment.
But just out of curiosity, if you had a system or EA that you knew for a fact would never exceed 15%DD, why not blow your risk out to 50%DD and and take the 83.3% return per year? I know that playing "what if" and theoretical situations are far different than live trading, and seeing half of your account go sucks (really, I do, just don't ask how...), but if we are dealing in absolutes then why not?
Just wanted to add:
I don't know if a binary decision-based system can ever be successful in the markets. This reason that discretion-based traders seem to do better than purely mechanical ones and EAs, they are thinking in terms of probabilities rather than absolutes. There are just too many factors to take into consideration; your countertrend EA will keep trading right through NFP and interest rate changes whereas a person generally will not.
That's not to say that we should stop chasing the dream. On the contrary, there is definitely a reason I keep checking this site multiple times a day. Bluto has some promising stuff going on as do others. The key seems to be in MTF analysis but thats not real easy to do from a programming perspective.
Anyway that's just my opinion, feel free to disagree. I'll try not to turn this into a philosophical discussion about the tenets of trading, good luck finding your EA.
static,
I cannot reply to you in a unique way. You already know how I will answer...I can see that. I am not accusing you of being patronizing or deceptive Sir...i am giving you credit for you intelligent post here and the other places.
I have been trading for many years allowing me to discover personal things about myself and my answer is.... its not JUST the profit....
If there is a roller coaster ride getting there then it becomes gambling...hoping....wishing....and so forth. I am in the belief that Trading can be "not gambling".
I learned that you must develop a plan and follow it. If I were to rethink my viewpoints and accept that I need to tolerate instances of a 50% DD for example to gain 83% while "living with these trades" for an entire year...well that might be the same as the 25/15 ratio...but the cycle revealed in comparison to the equity is too uncomfortable for me...does this mean that I am not a trader?...perhaps...hmmmmm....
ES
But just out of curiosity, if you had a system or EA that you knew for a fact would never exceed 15%DD, why not blow your risk out to 50%DD and and take the 83.3% return per year? I know that playing "what if" and theoretical situations are far different than live trading, and seeing half of your account go sucks (really, I do, just don't ask how...), but if we are dealing in absolutes then why not?
__________________
how about like this...
0.01 (microlot) is the smallest unit to trade with some MT4 dealers
How much money per microlot, would I need to designate to comply with my requirements to trade your EA? Anybody?
I am being more than reasonable here..
I will tell you why no one can come forth...IT DOES NOT EXIST!
ES
It's funny while reflecting on this thread and its development...I took the trash out..
I saw the squirrels...they are really a riot.. those little rodents!
One of them saw me coming and flipped his tail at me...like in defiance or something like that! He then proceeded to run up the telephone pole half way then he came back down...like to tell me he was not scared...HE REALY ENJOYED THIS GAME OF PUSHING THE LIMIT.
As I reflect on this and apply it to trading...we have the limit defined for us. It's called a margin call. Please forgive me Forex Gods for uttering that word that should be forbidden in a traders vocabualry.
Anyways...
Is it our job as traders to push the limit and squeeze as much exposure and leverage out of a position or a trade that we can?...are we squirreltraders?...lol...or are we to just use a minut amount of capital and preserve it while taking advantage of trends and ranges?
ElectricSavant ™
Check this out. Our own TSD member - auto - is the longest lasting commercial provider I've ever seen. Most of the people selling EA here will be attacked by others and sink very fast. Now, I tried to login his statement again, but was rejected with wrong password as reason. So, hopefully his system is still surviving. If he sees the post, he may post up some statement again. The last time I read his MultiCarry statement was 1 full year with about 15% drawdow, 100% return with static 0.10 lot size spread accross all the major pairs and a few exotic currency pairs as risk diversification. I guess thats pretty much what you're looking for.
Regards
David
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My request is reasonable isn't it?
I need a two year track record...
By the way...The DD is not an average it is a maximum excursion. I must never see 15% peak-to-valley including intraday of more than 15% drawdown.
Let me explain:
Scenario #1
Say I have 1k invested from day one. Trade #1 loses 100 bucks then we go flat. Then trade #2 loses 50 bucks then we go flat...I am out...
Scenario #2
Say I have 1k invested and trade #1 loses 100 bucks then we go flat. Then trade #2 wins 200 bucks but while waiting to get there it dipped to minus 50 bucks...I was out and cancelled the EA when it reached minus 50 bucks float...as the total DD, I momentarily experienced was 15% (this was combined from the previous trade and the open float).
Scenario #3
Say I have 1k invested and I made 200 bucks with trade #1 and went flat, so my new balance became 1200 bucks...so 15% of that is now 180 bucks and we start again...
Do you get the picture? I never can see 15% drop from equity. Intraday AND Peak-to-Valley combined...ok? (Highest Balance * 15%) + Float <= minus 15%
Most importantly I need a track record of 2 years of live trades with real money.
I will gander to say this does not exist, even at just a paultry 25% yield requested....
So my conclusions are thus far that Forex and "MT4 EA's" must tolerate more than 15% DD...which sadly puts me out of the game, but I still am searching for this illustriious EA (I think I have found a managed account right here in tsd that does this...but I cannot say yet).
ES