Cautious on EUR/USD and USD/CHF - Deutsche Bank
Oliver Harvey Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank offered an analyses on the G10 space.
Key Quotes:
"EUR/USD tops the technical scorecard in G10 space."
"The currency pair is highly trending with VHF at 88th percentile and is breaking new ground to the topside at 98th percentile."
"Though
it has smooth price action in terms of realized and implied volatility
metrics, the pair is highly stretched in terms of the RSI measure,
suggesting caution in chasing the trend."
"Alongside this,
USD/CHF has similar characteristics signaling caution. USD/JPY may be a
better choice, with decent trendiness and relatively less stretched
price action (to the downside)."
"Meanwhile, the recent move
higher in EUR/GBP means the currency scores very highly on our ‘new
groundiness’ measure. Avoid trading EUR/SEK as the currency is no longer
trending, suggesting that the move lower has run out of steam."
