On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 179

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

this profit is quite deceptive.

it can suddenly become just as much of a disadvantage

And since the lots are huge, the loss will quickly amplify the swap

and there's no way out.

Lots do not have to be huge. Of course, there are some restrictions when choosing lots, because the minimum lot can't be less than 0.01. But the minimum lots at which the required ratio of lots with the necessary accuracy can still be achieved can be quite low.

 
Maxaxa:

on the contrary - it has shifted quite unfortunate (centre of gravity)

Figuratively speaking - the shadow of a balanced (neutral) triangle - is not visible, it is equal in area to it. I change its balance and a shadow appears that goes from plus to minus - the more skewed it is, the bigger is the shadow and actually the possible drawdown or profit. Apparently I went too far with the imbalance and ended up with a sluggish structure. This process is cyclic. But perhaps I'm wrong.

No matter how you look at it, the system of EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP is a closed one.

Well, why trade a balanced triangle (extra swap, spread)?

throw her away, what's left?

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

well, why trade a balanced triangular part (extra swap, spread)?

discard it, what's left?

There is no way to do it without overheads. You can look for "triples" where the swap is not negative, but positive.

Is it possible to trade without swap and spread? ))) Or, for example, trade without money ))) A good start to the new TS.

 
Maxaxa:

There is no way to do it without overheads. It is possible to look for "triples" where the swap is not negative, but positive.

Can you trade without swaps and spreads? ))) Or, for example, trade without money )) It's a good start for a new TS.

You can, but it's not the beginning and it's a different strategy.

;)

 
secret:

Hint from your 1st year maths textbook: you need three equations to find three variables. In your problem, there are only two (independent). There's no way to do it without any additional definitions.

This problem doesn't fit within the narrow limits of your knowledge.

One more hint: the three equations you mention are not sufficient to solve this problem. And no lengthy post-definitions are needed. The system is self-consistent.

 

And what's so hard to take a look at history and see how currencies and pairs interact in sync?

A lot of questions will go away.

For today, a 15 minute chart. Histograms are currency pairs. The dots are the demand for currencies.

t2t

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

And what's so hard to take a look at history and see how currencies and pairs interact in sync?

A lot of questions will go away.

For today, a 15 minute chart. Histograms are currency pairs. The dots are the demand for currencies.


It is even more interesting to form a triangle asynchronously.
 
Maxaxa:
It is even more interesting to form a triangle asynchronously.

In a triangle, there is only one winning combination. Two pairs to one side and one to the other. Just need to know which currency will be in demand.

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

In a triangle, there is only one winning combination. Two pairs to one side and one to the other. You just have to know which currency will be in demand.

I usually assume Idon't know which currency will be in demand.

About the winning combination - there is only one, just because it is a triangle )) the rest are combinations

 
Maxaxa:

I usually assume that I don't know which currency will be in demand.

About the winning combination - there is only one, just because it is a triangle )) the others are combinations

Are you betting on a currency or a currency pair? That's where the difference lies.

Reason: