Why this price changed on this way? - page 4
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Good point, don't you think that high frequency guys can do the same using HFT quantitative models connected by optical fibers?
Officialy - not.
I think - it is mainly related to the banks, and as we know - there were some processes (or legal procedures) against some western banks (or traders working for those banks) who used insider's information. As I remember - it was something about NFP news events (they knew actual data few seconds before officially published, and they delivered those info to some clients). This kind of story is fully illegal.
Great point, we are not talking just about buyers, but sellers that are doing that after the news.
Are these traders that closed their positions/trades right now using news fundamental? Or they don't care about this?
In both cases, when do they entered the market and why?
Many traders are having some "theory" concerning "top and bottom". It means - find top to sell (or to close buy position), and find bottom to buy (or to close sell position). My personal opinion - this top-bottom practics is mistaken one for forex. Because after one top - we may see the other top (top-top, or high-high) so ... may be - this top/bottom strategies are working in stock market but it is the forex ... and forex is much more risky market than stocks for example.
But anyway, this top/bottom theory/practics are very popular so ... if the trader opened buy position on good price movement - he/she can expect the correction (correctional movement of the price on the way as counter trend), and if he understands it as some local top - he can close the trade with max profit (as he thinks about for example). And if less buyers on the market so the price is becoming less volatile and good movement is stopping slowly.
We have individual news analyses in the Forum.
This sounds great for me, but someone can state: this is mql5.com forum, why don't we just talk about mql5 language?
A good answer could be: since you must code EAs, you need state of the art technology, so news analyses are relevant fundamental information, and we have the news ready in the terminal.
But as we probably can collect and measure anything with MT5, if we find a model to convert any information in quantitative data, and connect the points in high frequency, this is not the same case as news? In other words, don't we have to take more care about this data and analysis, as we do with news?
For instance, if economy is a complex system, why don't we connect the points, i.e., the news, and try to identify the news that generate that news, and so on?
In my opinion, to find the cause of the problems is the best way to reach the truth, and to do this we must join here more economy knowledge and system knowledge, and this is my intention asking such questions.
But the big problem for me is: most of the economy guys are bad quantitative system designers (sorry if you are not the case), and most of the quantitative system designers have a bad economy background.
Looking for a solution, I believe that it's easier a quant learn economy than the opposite. Maybe connect the news and quantitative informations outside the box, as I proposed before, is a good way to start do that.
So, if someone has a better answer to why price changed, not just using this week news or technical analyses, like using behavioral economics, emotional factors, or any other model, please go ahead, since here we have no paradigms and would like too much to listen.
Many traders are having some "theory" concerning "top and bottom". It means - find top to sell (or to close buy position), and find bottom to buy (or to close sell position). My personal opinion - this top-bottom practics is mistaken one for forex. Because after one top - we may see the other top (top-top, or high-high) so ... may be - this top/bottom strategies are working in stock market but it is the forex ... and forex is much more risky market than stocks for example.
But anyway, this top/bottom theory/practics are very popular so ... if the trader opened buy position on good price movement - he/she can expect the correction (correctional movement of the price on the way as counter trend), and if he understands it as some local top - he can close the trade with max profit (as he thinks about for example). And if less buyers on the market so the price is becoming less volatile and good movement is stopping slowly.
Anyway, I believe this is probabilistic, and that the better the model we have, the better the results.
So I think we have to increase our efforts to find these models and ways to code them.
Maybe a good way to answer the question would be have a quantitative prevision to such facts from Newdigital:
2013-01-29 19:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
==========
What I mean is: good for currency is a very, very qualitative information, right?
But can we create an algorithm to translate such qualitative answer to a quantitative one?
If we can do this now, before the fact, and NZD prices really changes inside our model, maybe we get the answer.
And we can do it using any fundamental, technical, vision or quantitative model.
In my opinion, you can't do it, with success, without find the really answer of the topic question before the fact (the hard way), since, after the fact (the easy way), probably most of people are ready to give their opinions.