FOMC 21.09.2016
GS10:
The probability of Fed interest rate hike with the current situation on the currency and gold markets is negatively low -6.7%.Considering the global financial flows the situation is insufficiently ripe Index=-0.65 (for interest rate hike the index must be positive and above 4%).Considering the fundamental analysis INDEX JOBLESSUSA=
What do you mean, "the probability of an increase is negatively low"?
The probability of Fed interest rate hike with the current situation on the currency and gold markets is negatively low -6.7%.Considering the global financial flows the situation is insufficiently ripe Index=-0.65 (for interest rate hike the index must be positive and above 4%).Considering the fundamental analysis INDEX JOBLESSUSA=
Дмитрий:
What do you mean, "the probability of increase is negatively low"?
This is most likely the indicator based on the author's methodology, the principle of determining the probability, I understand, is based on the "backward-looking" methodology. In a classical variant traders try to determine the direction of the price movement based on the results of decisions of the Fed (or other similar structures), and the author's methodology is based on the reverse principle, i.e. the probability of an event (in this case a Fed rate increase) depends on the location of prices and movement directions of certain instruments. What do you mean, "the probability of increase is negatively low"?
An interesting approach if you ask me.
Andrii Maksymchuk:
This is most likely an indicator based on the author's methodology, the principle of determining probability, as I understand it, is based on the "backward-looking" methodology. In a classical variant traders try to determine the direction of the price movement based on the results of decisions of FRS (or other similar structures), but the author's methodology is based on an inverse principle, i.e. the probability of an event (in this case a Fed rate increase) depends on the location of prices and movement directions of certain instruments.
An interesting approach if you ask me.
The probability may vary from 0 to 100%. Probability cannot be a negative value.
This is most likely an indicator based on the author's methodology, the principle of determining probability, as I understand it, is based on the "backward-looking" methodology. In a classical variant traders try to determine the direction of the price movement based on the results of decisions of FRS (or other similar structures), but the author's methodology is based on an inverse principle, i.e. the probability of an event (in this case a Fed rate increase) depends on the location of prices and movement directions of certain instruments.
An interesting approach if you ask me.
Evgeny Belyaev:
The probability can range from 0 to 100%. Probability cannot be a negative value.
The probability can range from 0 to 100%. Probability cannot be a negative value.
Everything is relative and so is the probability. For example a scale of -0.5 to 0.5...
That said, I will assume that the best probability is greater than zero. And indeed - more than 50% (the inverse of 0 to 100%) is enough. It's like a controlling shareholding).
new-rena:
Everything is relative and so is the probability. For example, a scale of -0.5 to 0.5...
Do you know what probability is expressed as a percentage?
Everything is relative and so is the probability. For example, a scale of -0.5 to 0.5...
Дмитрий:
Do you know what probability is, expressed as a percentage?
I've heard something about it.
Do you know what probability is, expressed as a percentage?
new-rena:
heard something about it.
read it again
heard something about it.
Дмитрий:
Read it again.
Read it again.
what's the point?
No, I won't. I have a physics degree under my belt...
new-rena:
) don't be so self-critical - even a background physics degree will allow you to understand on what scale the probability of an event, expressed as a percentage, is measured.
What's the point?
No, I won't. I have a physics degree under my belt...
Дмитрий:
) don't be so self-critical - even a physics degree under your belt will allow you to understand on what scale the probability of an event, expressed as a percentage, is measured.
) don't be so self-critical - even a physics degree under your belt will allow you to understand on what scale the probability of an event, expressed as a percentage, is measured.
It's at school, so as not to mess with children's minds.
gone.
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The probability of Fed interest rate hike with the current situation on the currency market and the gold market is negatively low -6.7%.Taking into account the global financial flows is not enough ripe situation Index=-0.65 (for interest rate hike index should be positive and above 4%).Considering the fundamental analysis INDEX JOBLESSUSA = see analysis by the statistics
The index in any statistic is a weighted average of where the quotes tend to go after any volatility.