Eurogroup Gives Greece 10 Day Ultimatum: Apply For Bailout Or Grexit - page 5

 

Oettinger: Greek Deal May Take Longer, Maybe Next Week

A 'new Greek deal' is possible, but it might take longer than a day to hammer out an agreement, Guenther Oettinger, Germany’s EU commissioner told German radio Deutschlandfunk.

"We are working so that Greece stays in the euro zone," Oettinger said.

"On this basis I think an agreement will still be possible in the next eight days - if necessary via a further meeting of government leaders."

Greek drama

The Eurogroup is meeting in Brussels later in the day to discuss further help for Greece.

His comments came amid news that Germany had rejected Greece's request for a six-month loan-extension agreement on Thursday, saying the letter is not "a substantial proposal for a solution."

"In truth it goes in the direction of a bridge financing, without fulfilling the demands of the program," Martin Jaeger, a spokesman for the German finance ministry, said in a statement earlier in the day.

"The letter does not meet the criteria agreed by the Eurogroup on Monday," he said, referring to the official Greek request sent to the forum.

 

Germany Opts for Pianissimo Before Eurogroup Meeting

Christiane Wirtz, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokeswoman, said on Friday that the latest Greek request for an extension of its loan agreement from the European Union was a "good signal" for further talks. However, it was not sufficient in its current form, she added.

"The letter from the Greek finance minister makes clear that Greece remains interested in support from the European Union," Wirtz said. "This letter is a good signal which allows us to continue to negotiate."

She also said that the Eurogroup's talks would "hopefully lead to an agreement with Greece."

On Thursday, the Greek government expressed its "determination to cooperate closely with the European Union's institutions and with the International Monetary Fund, in order to attain fiscal and financial stability and to enable the Greek government to introduce the substantive, far-reaching reforms that are needed to restore the living standards of millions of Greek citizens through sustainable economic growth, gainful employment and social cohesion," in a letter from Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis to Eurogroup Chair Dijsselbloem.

German EC Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said on Friday that Greece and its creditors should be able to seal a deal, but may need another meeting of euro zone leaders next week.

"We are working so that Greece stays in the euro zone," Oettinger told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio. "On this basis I think an agreement will still be possible in the next eight days -- if necessary via a further meeting of government leaders."

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Malta FinMin: Germany Prepared to Let Greece Go

Countries led by Germany are prepared to see Greece leave the currency bloc, Maltese Finance Minister Edward Scicluna told the Malta Today newspaper on Friday.

"I think they’ve now reached a point where they will tell Greece: if you really want to leave, leave," Scicluna said.

"And I think they mean it because Germany, the Netherlands and others will be hard and they will insist that Greece repays back the solidarity shown by the member states by respecting the conditions."

Speaking further, he said that Berlin and a group of other euro zone governments are increasingly frustrated with the demands from Athens.

"The question at this stage is how to find a way for Greece to exit ‘nicely’ with its electorate accepting the program, while showing that they are going to change something."

High-profile meeting

Eurogroup finance ministers, led by President Jeroen Dijsselbloem, are meeting in Brussels to decide whether or not to accept the bailout extension plans put forward by Greece on Thursday. Those proposals included a six-month extension and a number of concessions which were interpreted as Greek backing down.

Prior to the meeting, Finland's Finance Minister Antti Rinne expressed her optimism that a final agreement might be reached at the meeting.

Separately, however, Germany’s EU commissioner Guenther Oettinger signaled that the deal might not be reached later in the day, suggesting that the euro zone leaders might need one more summit.

Meanwhile, Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling told the Oberoesterreichische Nachrich

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EU Preview: Olive Branch Handed Over, Greek Odyssey to Continue

The Greek-Eurogroup drama is set to continue in the weeks ahead and beyond as the deal agreed on Friday night in Brussels is only a holding deal, pending yet more talks. Market watchers, investors and traders wait for a broader set of macroeconomic data from Germany in the week ahead, including Ifo survey results, GDP, inflation and labor data and Q4 GDP figures from UK and other EU countries.

The interim four-month program approved by the Eurogroup (19 euro zone finance ministers) does not include austerity measures, while Greece has committed to not making any unilateral moves. The common text forms the basis for an agreement to extend Athens' rescue package.

Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem said Greece's government had given "their unequivocal commitment to honour their financial obligations". "This is a very positive outcome," Dijsselbloem added.

"It has been a laborious but eventually constructive process... We look at it as a set of stages and timeline by which work has to be done. We are very pleased that work can begin," International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said about the deal.

Compromise

As part of the interim four-month extension program, Athens has to submit a letter by Monday outlining the reform measures it plans to take. The agreement does not include austerity measures, while Greece commits to not making any unilateral moves - such as raising the minimum wage or protecting primary homes from foreclosures as had been initially planned by Greece's new government.

Eurogroup members met at a special session on Friday afternoon to consider Greece's request for a loan extension rather than a renewal of the existing bailout program.

Greece’s current €240 billion bailout program as designed by architects from the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF expires next Friday.

Without a new deal, the nation would probably run out of money in early March as it is locked out of international financial markets and their lending options.

Only in one day, on Friday, up to €1 billion was withdrawn by worried depositors from local banks in Greece, according to central bank officials. If the outflows maintained such pace, local lenders would need more emergency funding from the ECB “within the next week” to avoid financial collapse.

Geopolitical considerations

"The newsflow in recent weeks has swung from optimism that some sort of deal can be done to pessimism as a result of German opposition to proposals from the Greek government," Neil MacKinnon, of VTB Capital, wrote in a note to clients.

"US geopolitical policy frames European policy and the US will likely have a desire to see Greece at least stay within NATO. The economic history of negotiations between creditors and debtors often involves considerations of foreign policy, as Germany found to its advantage, for example, in the post–WW1 negotiations on reparations and the debt it owed to the foreign powers," MacKinnon reminds readers.

Moreover, the political situation in Europe has been swiftly changing since last year. Leaders in Brussels certainly remember the May 2014 European parliament elections with a taste of things that might come. Radicals from the right and the left threatening good old "well defined" parties. And 2015 will once again give the anti-establishment and anti-austerity movements the opportunity to stir Europe's discontent, as it happened in January when Alexis Tsipras and Syriza claimed victory in Greece's parliamentary elections.

"The rise of anti-euro parties in Spain, France and Italy, and an impending series of elections throughout the EU, could easily result in political contagion which threatens the viability of monetary union. Some commentators have raised the point that the notion of monetary union being a union of equals is undermined by German threats about who and who cannot participate in monetary union," MacKinnon writes in his note.

According to reports, apart from strong objections from Germany, Spain and Portugal also tried to block the Greece-euro zone deal. Both countries have anti-bailout parties nipping at heels of the current administrations.

Macroeconomic data

A closely watched survey, the Ifo Business Climate Index, to be released on Monday, is expected to edge further up to 107.2 in February, from the 106.7 booked in the first month of the year.

The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen edging higher to 112.7, after posting a figure of 111.7 a month ago. The Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - is projected to rise to 103.3, from 102.0 in January.

On Tuesday, Germany is expected to report 2014 Q4 GDP results. Final figures are expected to confirm the preliminary 0.7% GDP growth in the final quarter of the year, quarter-on-quarter, after 0.1% in Q3, while1.6% growth was recorded when measured annually.

The single currency zone will also report its inflation data for January on Tuesday, with prices expected to fall a further 0.6%, year-on-year, from a 0.2% fall reported in December, while falling 1.6% month-on-month.

Spain's statistical office will release final figures for fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. The result is expected to confirm 0.7% growth in the third quarter, quarter-on-quarter, while 2.0% GDP growth is seen on an annual basis.

Confidence in Italian manufacturing in February, with a figure due also on Thursday, is seen as edging higher to 104.2 from 97.1 recorded in January.

Also on Thursday, Italy will publish results of its retail activities in December. The country's retail businesses saw a 0.1% monthly growth in November, and a 2.3% reduction when measured annually.

Labor and final inflation data from Germany will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively, with the unemployment rate in the country expected to remain at 6.5.% in February, the same as reported a month ago.

UK and Greece are expected to report GDP results for Q4 on Friday.

The second estimate of UK GDP is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 0.5% growth in the final quarter of the year, quarter-on-quarter, and 2.7% when measured annually.

The UK's Gfk survey measuring consumer confidence is also due on Friday, with a 2.0 result expected in the second month of the year after 1.0 a month ago.

Greece's final Q4 figures may confirm the preliminary 1.5% GDP growth in the final quarter of the year, when measured annually.

Also on Friday, Italy will release its inflation data for the second month of the year, with the CPI seen growing 0.2% on a monthly basis after a 0.4%decline in January, while declining 0.3% annually in January, following negative 0.6% growth reported in the previous month.

Consumer prices in Germany are seen heading up in February, with 0.7% inflation growth on a monthly basis, compared to a 1.1% decline in the previous month, with a negative 0.2% result expected year-on-year after a 0.4% decline a month ago.

Other events of the week

ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch will participate in a panel discussion called "The Benefits to Achieving a Capital Markets Union" at Dialogue on creating a EU Capital Markets Union organized by the London School of Economics and Political Science and Goldman Sachs in London.

The Eurosystem (the ECB and the national central banks of the euro area) will unveil the new Europa series €20 banknote on Tuesday, February 24. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the event in Frankfurt. The new €20 note is the third banknote of the Europa series to be introduced after the €5 and €10.

On Wednesday, President Draghi is scheduled to testify on the ECB Annual Report 2013 before the European Parliament in Brussels.

The ECB will conduct a third round of targeted long-term refinancing option (TLTRO) on Thursday, providing loans to banks in the euro zone maturing in September 2018. The volume of the loans will be determined by the demand from commercial banks.

ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio will participate in a panel discussion named "Central Banking with Large Balance Sheets" at US Monetary Policy Forum organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.

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The Real Battle Over Greece Still Lies Ahead

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras claimed an initial victory after emergency talks with creditors gave the country a reprieve from the prospect of insolvency, as he began the task to sell the deal domestically.

“Yesterday we won a battle, but not the war as the difficulties, the real difficulties, not only those related to the discussions and the relationship with our partners, are ahead of us,” Tsipras said in a televised speech on Saturday.

Talks in Brussels between officials from the 19 euro-area countries concluded late Friday with an agreement to extend bailout funds to Greece for four months. Tsipras’s government must submit a list of economic measures it will undertake on Monday. Finance chiefs will then decide whether his proposals go far enough.

While the agreement potentially frees up some money to meet at least some of the pledges made by Tsipras before last month’s election, the outcome may still prove politically bruising for him.

Even after last night’s agreement, his policies are subject to validation by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, the institutions collectively known as the troika from which Tsipras vowed to break free.

“While Greece secured some ability to rewrite the terms of its current program, the sense is that the combination of pressure on its banking sector and on state cash flows has forced the bulk of concessions to come from their side,” Malcolm Barr, economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a client note. “This may place some degree of strain within Syriza itself.”

Austerity Canceled

Tsipras said the deal “cancels austerity” and pledges by the previous government to cut wages, pensions and public sector employees and increase sales taxes. The list of reforms will be “based on the current arrangement,” the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers said in a statement. That will include corruption fight, public administration and tax system changes, government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said on Mega TV on Saturday.

“Having won the January election on a strongly populist platform, Syriza has been forced to roll back on the bulk of its election promises,” Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics Ltd. in London, wrote in an e-mailed note. “In some ways, Syriza’s toughest political and economic challenges still lie ahead, and are closer to Athens than Berlin.”

Unilateral Actions

The agreement allows Greece to lower previously agreed targets on reaching a primary budget surplus. In return, it will refrain from unilateral actions that may jeopardize fiscal targets and will abandon plans to use about 11 billion euros ($12.5 billion) in leftover European bank support funds to help restart the Greek economy.

Finance ministers will hold a conference call Tuesday to discuss the Greek response, after which the deal, if approved, will be put to national parliaments next week. Austria’s Hans Joerg Schelling said that a new Eurogroup meeting will be called “immediately” if the list of measures is deemed insufficient. Greece’s Yanis Varoufakis said he was confident his counterparts will approve his government’s measures, or else “this agreement is dead and buried.”

The breakthrough reduces the immediate risk of Tsipras’s government running out of cash as early as next month. It also removes the threat of the ECB pulling the plug on the nation’s banks, a prospect that would have risked Greece crashing out of the euro. Capital controls are now out of the question, according to a euro-area official. Deposit withdrawals from Greek banks reached 20 billion euros since December.

Wiggle Room

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs euro-area finance ministers meetings said late Friday that Greece now has “room in the program to change and to replace things. That’s very serious. But we have agreed it will happen after mutual discussions.”

Tsipras’s cabinet is meeting on Saturday to hear Varoufakis’s report on the Eurogroup accord, state-run Athens News reported. Marina Chrisoveloni, spokeswoman for Independent Greeks party, Tsipras’s junior coalition party, said in a statement that “the real fight begins for the establishment of a long-term program that aims to revive the victims of the memorandum, to boost growth and the restoration of the economy.”

Five years and as many prime ministers after the euro-area’s first international bailout in 2010, Greece’s economy has shrunk by about a quarter and it’s shouldering the highest unemployment in the region.

The next major financial hurdle comes next month, when the government must service 2.2 billion euros of debt to the IMF, with the treasury’s coffers nearly exhausted.

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Greek Spokesman: Current Bailout Programme Rejected By Greek Govt. Next Four Months To Be Crucial

 

Spain Said to Lead EU Push to Force Terms on Greece

As euro-region finance ministers turned the screw on Greece in Friday’s talks, the group’s usual enforcer, Wolfgang Schaeuble of Germany, was eclipsed by Spain’s Luis de Guindos, according to two people with direct knowledge of the talks.

De Guindos took the toughest line with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis as the bloc forced him to adhere to the terms of the country’s existing bailout to retain access to official financing, the people said, asking not to be named because the conversations were private. When the group rejected Schaeuble’s call for a Tuesday meeting to scrutinize Greece’s plans to meet those conditions, De Guindos insisted, winning agreement for a teleconference, they said.

The Spanish government is particularly sensitive to the fortunes of the Syriza government in Greece because the party’s Spanish ally, Podemos, has surged to the top of some recent polls. A victory for Varoufakis would have strengthened Podemos’s argument that De Guindos’s boss, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, was wrong to impose austerity on Spain.

The Spanish government “has always been constructive but it has to defend its interests,” Guindos said on Friday. “A climate is developing in which the new Greek government is adapting to the rules that affect us all.”

A spokeswoman for De Guindos said his ministry disagrees with the characterisation of the content and tone of the conversation. Spain is in favor of dialogue and flexibility within the existing rules and has shown its solidarity with Greece by contributing 26 billion euros ($30 billion) to its bailout at a time when its own financing conditions were not good, she said.

Struggling to fend off a sovereign default, the Greek government acceded to European demands that it respect the conditions of its existing bailout package at Friday’s meeting in Brussels. The Greek government must submit a list of economic measures it will undertake by Monday and finance chiefs will then decide whether the proposals go far enough.

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Greece will delay list of reforms until Tuesday morning

Greek conditions listGreece isn't doing any favours to their reputation for efficiency. There has been a bit of a rally in bonds on the news but I don't anticipate there are any risks from the delay. Officials say the list will include reforms to fight tax evasion and corruption. It will also include reforms of the public sector and some efforts to cut bureaucracy.

 

Greece's Reform Plan 'Sufficiently Comprehensive': EU

Greece submitted a list of reform plans to EU leaders early Tuesday morning, in accordance with the deal struck on Friday in order to secure a four-month loan extension.

The European Commission (EC) confirmed on Twitter that the list of Greek reform proposals had been received on time. "In the Commission's view, this list is sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review," a source familiar with EC proceedings told Reuters.

"We are notably encouraged by the strong commitment to combat tax evasion and corruption," the source added. The document has to be approved by Greece’s creditors to ensure the deal.

The summary of the main proposals:

- Creating a fairer tax system

- Cracking down on tax evasion

- Tackling corruption

- Combating fuel and tobacco smuggling

- Labor reforms on collective contracts and bargaining agreements

- Tackling the "humanitarian crisis" with housing guarantees and free medical care for the uninsured unemployed.

 

Greece on course for euro bailout extension after concessions

Greece was on course to win a four-month extension of its euro zone financial rescue on Tuesday after backing down further to its partners on key leftist reforms and promising that measures to alleviate social distress will not derail its budget.

Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem convened a telephone conference of finance ministers of the currency bloc to seal the decision after the new leftist-led government in Athens sent him a detailed list of reforms it plans to implement by July.

The six-page document signed by Marxist Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis rowed back on campaign promises to halt privatizations, boost welfare spending and raise the minimum wage, vowing to consult partners before key reforms and keep them budget-neutral.

The European Commission called the Greek letter "sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review". Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling, a conservative fiscal hawk close to Germany, forecast a positive outcome from the teleconference.

Financial markets surged on the prospect of an extension of the 240 billion euro EU/IMF bailout, saving Greece for now from an imminent banking collapse, state bankruptcy and a possible disorderly exit from the euro zone.

However the country's longer-term financial future remains in doubt with Dijsselbloem telling the European Parliament the euro zone's most heavily indebted member is likely to need further assistance after two bailouts since 2010.

Crucially, the Greek plan pledged not to reverse any ongoing or completed privatizations, and to ensure that the fight against what the government calls the country's humanitarian crisis "has no negative fiscal effects".

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