On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 157

 
Алексей Тарабанов:

So is the likelihood of meeting a dinosaur in your own kitchen late at night.

It is certainly possible to meet a dinosaur in your kitchen, unless you are eating butter mushrooms, but waiting for a return - the deposit is usually not enough for everyone, but of course there is a return.

 

I wondered what was going on with Equity in Focus 8, so I took the time to look at it (but not completely - without a refill):

and I think there was a refill... and the swaps aren't accounted for.

 

And then there's that.


 
Aleksandr Volotko:

what's going on with Equity in Focus 8,

Thanks, Alexander, for the update on TC! Yeah, it's been a real slippery slope.

 
Notice I didn't say that.
 
Aleksandr Volotko:

I wondered what was going on with Equity in Focus 8, so I took the time to look at it (but not completely - without a refill):

and I think there was a refill... and swaps aren't counted.

yeah, right.

Whata hell of a Formulae he's got.

I told you, time will tell

;)))
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

Yeah, right.

That's one hell of a formulae he's got.

Told you - time will tell.

;)))

Renat, that's the wrong Alexander. Not many Padres in Brazil?

 
Алексей Тарабанов:

Renat, that's the wrong Alexander. Are there a lot of padres in Brazil?

no

Alexander is fine.

 
Aleksei Stepanenko:

I know a few: levels, trends, periodicity, highlighting monotonous segments of the chart.

We seem to have taken seriously the nonsense that Mikhael1983 says "about the nature of the market": "This is particularly useful in that there are very few physically meaningful ideas of any kind on the forum". There is no nature here, equilibrium with correlation and that's it. See:

Take
1. The exchange rate of any currency pair to each other X. Can be relative values (divided by the value at some point). You can take the temperature of a thermometer outside your window, Celsius or Fahrenheit. The main thing is to denote it by X;
2. another rate with the same quotation currency or atmospheric pressure (atm, Pascali, GPa, mm Hg or water column), denoted by Y.
Consider two series Xi and Yi. Consider Ni = Xi - Yi and Mi = Xi + Yi. Ni and Mi immediately, by construction, will be such that Xi/Ni - Yi/Ni = 1 and Xi/Mi + Yi/Mi = 1 for all i. That is, X/N differs from Y/N only by a shift, and the same plus sign for M. Naturally, and the correlation coefficients of X/N with Y/N are 1, and the correlation coefficients of X/M with Y/M are -1. That's it.


In the attached table this is checked for 2048 values of GBPUSD and EURUSD (5 minutes) on the left. On the right for the table of 29 values of temperature and precipitation in Moscow for January 2020. Then in the same columns there are 31 rows with relative humidity and pressure values in January 2019 in the same Moscow. The correlation coefficients are calculated at once for the data in all 60 rows of completely different meaning, but are exactly 1 and -1. The nature of forex is definitely not here.

Files:
 
Vladimir:

We seem to have taken seriously the nonsense that Mikhael1983 says "about the nature of the market": "It is particularly useful in that there are very few physically meaningful ideas of any kind on the forum". There is no nature here, equilibrium with correlation and .....

no, we haven't taken anything seriously

Reason: