Press review - page 72
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Gold Market Traders – New Gold Bull Market Cycle Has Started (adapted from thetechnicaltraders article)
2013 was one of the worst years for gold in a generation and the strangest part of it is that this loss came during a time in what should have been a banner year for gold.
When the Fed launched its QE1 and QE2 programs, gold posted huge gains but with QE3, we only had a brief rally in late 2012, it’s been all downhill for there.
The price of gold over the last year highlights just how much Europe has become a powerful driver behind gold vs. the US which has historically been the main mover. When the European debt crisis started a few years ago, people fearing a financial meltdown in Europe put a lot of their money into gold as it was the save haven of choice.
However, with financial and political risk in Europe subsiding, we have seen money leave gold and move into other markets, hence the big outflows from gold ETF’s.
Other factors that have dragged on gold over the last year include falling jewelry demand, the loss of its role as an inflation hedge with deflation becoming more of a concern in some areas, also tax increases on gold imports in India, and the supposedly improving economy in the US. All these contributed to the selling of gold.
Gold and gold stocks crashed last year in the summer. They have since been going through a stage one base. This suggests that 2014 will mark the start of a new bull market for gold, gold mining stocks and commodities.
Gold Market Traders & Manipulators Provide Contrarian Bullish Outlook
Gold market traders and manipulators like some of the commercial banks/brokerage firms have been verbally slamming gold, and it turns out many are not as negative as lead us to believe…
Goldman Sachs we all know are the biggest hypocrites. While advising clients to sell gold in the second quarter of 2013, they bought a stunning 3.7 million shares of the GLD. And when Venezuela needed to raise cash and sell its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yup, GS! So while they tell everyone to sell gold, they are accumulating as much as they can without being obvious.
There is a lot more reasons and fundamentals to be bullish on commodities and gold, but that is not the point of this technical based report.
Weekly CRB Commodity Index – Bull Market Cycle About To Start
Taking a quick look at the CB index which is a basket of commodities, it looks as though a breakout above its down trend line will trigger a new bull market in the commodity sector. While this has not yet happened it looks s though it may happen in the next few months.
Gold Mining Bullish Percent Index – Weekly Chart
Gold Miners ETF – Monthly Chart
Gold stocks have not yet broken out to start a rally as you can see in the chart below. But the important thing to note is that the daily chart has formed a mini Stage 1 Basing patterns and could breakout this week to kick start a multi month/year rally.
2013-01-13 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Home Loans]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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AUD/USD down ahead of Australian home loan data
The Australian dollar fell against U.S. dollar ahead of Australia November home loans data that indicates demand in housing market and is due at 1130 local time (0030 GMT).
Released by Australian Bureau of Statistics, the figures are expected to project a month-on-month gain of 1.0%, compared to a 1.0% increase in October.
The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group job advertisements report for December will also be released at the same time. Measuring the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites in the capital cities, in November the report showed a decline of 0.8%.
The Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday.
Silver is down, should you invest in it now? (based on this article)
What should investors do?
When the National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) introduced bullion investing in demat form (e-series), it caught on since only gold was available in the demat form as exchange traded funds (ETFs). The NSEL fiasco has come as a setback for e-series investors. "It was a good concept but was not implemented properly," says C P Krishnan, director, Geojit Comtrade.
Silver futures on the commodity exchanges are short-term contracts, better suited to speculators. Hence, longterm silver investors have no option but to buy the commodity in the physical form, which entails higher costs. Still, given the prospects of gold, it may not be a bad idea to invest in silver.
4 tips for silver investors
BUY BARS
Invest only in the standard 1 kg bar (0.999 purity), not in silver ornaments.
BEWARE OF TARNISH
Silver is bulkier than gold and takes up more space in the locker. In fact, the 1 kg silver bar may not fit into small-sized bank lockers.
STORAGE ISSUES
The investors who buy from commodity exchanges can leave silver in the certified vault. This takes care of storage problems, but you will have to pay additional charges for this facility.
STRIKE DEAL TO SELL
If you want to sell silver back to the jeweller, he will offer a discounted rate. The discount is higher if you buy it from another jeweller. To avoid this problem, strike a deal at the time of purchase that the jeweller will buy back silver at a reasonable discount at a later date.
GBPAUD is on the verge of deeper correction (based on fxstreet.com article)
GBP/AUD started the trading week on a softer note and moved below the resistance area of 1.8300 right from the start, as the bears are eager to show who is running the show here.
Watch out for Head-and-Shoulders
From the technical point of view the GBP/AUD is on the verge of deeper correction as the cross has formed the head and shoulder pattern on the daily charts. The break below 1.8256 is needed to confirm the model completion. GBP/AUD has come vary close to this level today morning as the current intraday low is 1.8261. The upside dynamics is likely to be contained below 1.8300. Australian home loans and investment lending data came out slightly better than expected, though it is hardly the factor behind the move. It is all about post-Non Farm Payrolls reaction and stops, triggered below 1.8300. No fundamental data of interest is published today so keep an eye on the above mentioned technical levels level, if the crosse breaks the resistance level at 1.8300, we may spend still more time in the range.
What are today’s key GBP/AUD levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.8395, with support below at 1.8229, 1.8135 and 1.7969, with resistance above at 1.8489, 1.8655, and 1.8749. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA at 1.8446 and the daily 20EMA at 1.8346. Hourly RSI is neutral at 27.06.
ECB's Draghi Wins Governor Of The Year Award
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has won the inaugural 'governor of the year' award, the Central Banking magazine said on its website on Monday.
Draghi was chosen the winner due to his "unflappable conviction and outstanding leadership of the ECB as playing a vital role in restoring confidence in the eurozone", the London-based journal said.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was the winner of the 'central banking lifetime achievement award'.
The People's Bank of China was awarded the prize for the 'central bank of the year'. The Chinese central bank was given the award in recognition of the critical role it has played in anchoring China's drive towards a more market-oriented economy during 2013, Central Banking said.
The Central Bank of Colombia was chosen for the award for the reserves manager of the year, while the Swedish central bank, known as the Riksbank, was the winner in the transparency category.
The Bank of Spain won the award for the website of the year.
BlackRock was chosen the asset manager of the year, while Northern Trust was the global custodian of the year.
2013-01-13 21:00 GMT (or 22:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - NZIER Business Confidence]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
==========
New Zealand Business Confidence Near 20-Year High
New Zealand business confidence strengthened to highest since 1994 as the economic recovery broadened across regions, the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion from New Zealand Institute of Economic Research showed Tuesday.
In the fourth quarter of 2013, a net 52 percent of firms forecast business conditions to improve over the coming six months, up from 33 percent in September. The score was the highest since the second quarter of 1994.
AUD/USD: 2nd breakout attempt successful (based on investing.com article)
The AUD/USD pair has recovered after its first failed breakout attempt and has moved higher again, succeeding instead on its second attempt to break above the major trend-line and out of the sideways consolidation range at the lows. This move now means that the evidence is strong for a short-term change from bear to bull trend, given the break above the trend-line and out of the reversal pattern, as well as two higher highs and lows on the 4hr chart. There is a chance of a pull-back before more upside, down to perhaps 0.9000, but then it will probably continue higher, with the next target sitting at 0.9120 where the R1 monthly pivot and the 50-day MA are situated together combining the already considerable resistance provided by each individually.
After NFPs, Focus Turns to Potential Tops for GBPAUD (adapted from this article)
In light of last week’s data and the softening yield environment, the British Pound enters the coming period with a more uncertain future. Central to Sterling weakness has been budding expectations for a dovish shifting in the Bank of England’s forward guidance policy - the Unemployment Rate threshold would be lowered to 6.5% from 7.0%.
Ironically, this is a result of recent economic momentum, as it looks like the UK Unemployment Rate will hit 7.0% sometime in early-2014. The BoE is worried that higher rates resulting from a stronger economy will be self-defeating; right or wrong, it is attempting to front-run an accelerated tightening cycle.
Accordingly, because the BoE needs a soft price environment in order to justify a dovish shift in policy – the desire to keep rates low so as to not choke off growth - we are watching this Tuesday’s December UK Consumer Price Index release with great anticipation.
Confirmation that inflation remains pinned below the BoE’s +2.5% (y/y) forward guidance circuit may bethe signal for a dovish shift at the February meeting – and that may be setting up the GBPAUD and GBPJPY for technical corrections in the coming days.
2013-01-14 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German WPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
German Wholesale Prices Fall For Fifth Month
Germany's wholesale prices declined for the fifth consecutive month in December, Destatis reported Tuesday.
Wholesale prices fell 1.8 percent annually, but slower than the 2.2 percent drop posted in November and 2.7 percent decrease seen in October.
On month-on-month comparison, wholesale prices increased for the first time in three months in December. Wholesale prices gained 0.4 percent, reversing the 0.2 percent drop in November.
Cost of solid fuel and related products advanced 1.8 percent from November. Fruit and vegetable prices also rose by 1.8 percent, while grain and unmanufactured tobacco rose 1.2 percent.
Fed said to release plan to limit Bank's Commodities Activities