AUD/USD news
AUD/USD rises to a new high of 0.9813 of this hour.
I don't think that this will confirm the bulls. Still we are in the down trend and more chance to continue in the same direction.
This currency pair has experienced plenty of selling pressure and it will take a lot of time to grind out a bottom and better economic data before this pair will make a significant move higher. I do expect a retest of parity before another leg lower.
The Australian dollar continued its recent bout of bullishness against its U.S. rival Friday even after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its growth outlook.
In Asian trading Friday, AUD/USD rose 0.14% to 0.9116. The pair was likely to find support at 0.8920, Wednesday's low and resistance at 0.9206, the high of July 30.
Earlier Friday, RBA lowered its 2013 GDP growth outlook to 2.25% from a previous forecast of 2.5% while adding core consumer prices will rise 2.25% through the fiscal year ending July 2014. RBA’s desired range for core consumer prices is 2% to 3%.
On Thursday, Official data showed that the number of employed people in Australia fell by 10,200 in July, confounding expectations for a 5,000 rise. June's figure was revised down to a 9,300 rise from an initial 10,300 increase.
The report also showed that Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% last month, compared to expectations for an uptick to 5.8%.
The Aussie also continued higher against the greenback Friday after the National Bureau of Statistics of China said that Chinese CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% last month. Analysts expected a July reading of 2.8%.
In another report, the National Bureau of Statistics said China’s producer price inflation was -2.3% last month after reading -2.7% in June. Analysts had expected Chinese PPI to rise to -2.2% last month.
All hedge funds are moved from the short side of Aud, the inevitable continuation of the rebound.
And let's not forget that August is one of the worst months of the year for the Aussie, so I would take advantage of this rebound to lighten up and then back long in September.
And in fact the seasonality makes us notice its importance on the Aussie.
The fall of metals seems to be arrived to an end. I am waiting for the end of August to enter long on the Aussie.
AUD/USD Forecast August 19-23
After a couple of volatile weeks, AUD/USD settled down and posted modest gains last week. AUD/USD ended the week slightly below the 0.92 line. It’s a quiet week ahead, with just six releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Australian data was a mix last week. Consumer Sentiment was strong, but Business Confidence dropped sharply. Over in the US, Unemployment Claims were solid, but disappointing manufacturing and weak consumer confidence numbers hurt the US dollar.
- New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. New Motor Vehicle Sales is an important indicator of consumer spending, as an increase in sales indicates more consumers are comfortable making big-ticket purchases such as new cars and trucks. The indicator shot up to 4.0% in July, its highest reading since October 2012. The markets will be hoping for another strong release in August.
- RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. This release provides details of the RBA’s most recent policy meeting. With the RBA cutting rates from 2.75% to 2.50% at the August 6th meeting, analysts will be carefully reviewing the minutes for the considerations and factors which led the RBA to reduce rates.
- MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This index is based on nine leading indicators, but is considered a minor release since most of the indicators have already been released. The index posted a weak gain of just 0.2% in the August reading.
- CB Leading Index: Thursday, 00:00. This index, which is composed of six leading indicators, is also treated as a minor release, as much of the information in the index has already been released. The index gained a healthy 1.0% in the July reading, and the markets will be hoping for another solid gain in the upcoming release.
- Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. The Australian dollar is sensitive to Chinese key releases, given that China is Australia’s number one trading partner. Flash Manufacturing PMI has not looked strong in recent readings, with the past three releases falling below the 50-point level, which indicates contraction. Another reason for concern is that the PMI has fallen short of the estimate for four consecutive releases. The markets are expecting an improved reading in August, with an estimate of 48.3 points. Will the index post a stronger reading in the August release?
- Jackson Hole Symposium: Thursday-Saturday. The Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming is an important economic conference attended by central bankers, finance ministers, financial market participants and academics from around the world. With speculation that the Fed could taper QE as early as September, the conference could be prove to be a market-mover and will be carefully monitored by analysts.
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AUD/USD rises to a new high of 0.9813 of this hour.