Generalized Forex forecast for 14 – 18 September 2015

First, a few words regarding last week’s forecast:

- regarding EUR/USD, the best prediction turned out to be the one we made two weeks ago – the pair’s striving upwards. As for the forecast from seven days ago, as predicted the pair tried to hold in a sideways trend for some time, but then the “bulls” won with a clear advantage and, instead of the expected fall, the pair shot upwards, first turning the 1.1140 Pivot Point into a level of support and then leaving it far behind altogether;

- for the GBP/USD pair, a possible scenario that was offered was the rebound of the pair to the upper boundary of the downwards corridor, breaking through it and rising to the zone of 1.5325, which is what actually happened. Truth be told the leap upwards turned out to be so large that the specified zone turned out to be a support level, rebounding from which the pair went further “north” on Wednesday;

- the forecast regarding the future of USD/JPY was fulfilled by 100%. As predicted, having rebounded from the lower boundary of the three-week-old horizontal corridor, the pair immediately went upwards and finished the five days exactly where expected – in the zone of 120.50;

- as for USD/CHF, both indicators and experts turned out to be correct regarding the pair’s behaviour, insisting on its striving upwards. 0.9680 was dubbed the key support level, leaning on which the pair managed to reach the 0.9820 mark twice in the middle of the week, after which it returned to its original position.

***

The forecast for the coming week:

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on the most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- it is not possible to make a clear forecast regarding the future of EUR/USD this week. 45% of analysts, indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on H1 insist on the continuation of the pair’s growth to at least the strong resistance level in the zone of 1.1450. The remaining 55% of experts predict a fall of the pair to the 1.1100 mark or even lower – 1.1000. It seems that the events of next week will unravel according to just one of these scenarios: either growth of the pair to the named level of resistance and then a rebound downwards, or just a fall. It will most probably become clear at the very start of the week which one of these scenarios is to be fulfilled;

- the GBP/USD pair may expect a similar scenario. According to 60% of analysts and graphical analysis on all the main timeframes, the zone of 1.5480÷1.5500 will offer very strong resistance that the pair will not be able to overcome despite all its efforts. Thus in the next few days we will observe its fall to the level of 1.5335, then a rebound to 1.5420 and finally a fall to the minimum of last week around 1.5170. An alternative point of view suggests a continuation of the rising corridor and the growth of the pair to the level of 1.5680;

- as for the USD/JPY pair, indicators and 66% of experts predict a continuation of the three-week-old sideways trend with fluctuations around the Pivot Point of 120.60. Graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 refuses to provide any forecasts, which simply confirms the prediction of sideways movement. The main support will be in the zone of 118.60, and resistance will be around 121.40. However, 34% of analysts remind us of the possibility of the pair’s return to the zone above 123.00;

- when talking about the future of the USD/CHF pair, most experts, indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair’s striving to reach the signature level of 1.0000. The nearest target is to gain a foothold in the zone of 0.9800÷0.9900. As before, support will be in the zone of 0.9680. The next support will be 100 points lower.

Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov