Description #1 :
ISM Index (Institute of Supply Management's index, former NAPM — National Association of Purchasing Managers) is the index of business activity.
ISM figures above 50 are usually considered as an indicator of expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction. Typically, when ISM approaches 60 investors begin to worry about possible economic overheating, inflation increase and the corresponding measures (raising rates) by the Federal Reserve Bank. Figures below 40 entail talks about recession.
ISM is released just before unemployment data are announced, and is often used to refine data by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Release Frequency: monthly.
- Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the first business day of the month.
- Source: Institute for Supply Management.
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Description #2 :
- Source : Institute for Supply Management
- Measures : Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry
- Usual Effect : actual > forecast = good for currency
- Frequency : Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends
- Why Traders Care : It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy
- Also Called : Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
NZDUSD M5 : 17 pips prrice movement by USD ISM Manufacturing PMI :
What is ISM?
A country’s economy is as strong as its supply chain. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) measures the economic activity from both the manufacturing side as well as the service side. Formed in 1915, ISM is the first management institute in the world with over 40,000 members in 90 countries. Since it can draw from information gathered from the surveying its large membership of purchasing managers, the ISM economic news releases are carefully watched by Forex traders around the world as a reliable guide to economic activity.
ISM Surveys
ISM publishes three surveys; manufacturing, construction, and services. Published on the first business day of the month, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is compiled from surveys of 400 manufacturing purchasing managers. These purchasing managers from different sectors represent five different fields; inventories and employment, speed of supplier deliveries, production level, and new orders from customers.
XAUUSD M5 : 3345 pips price movement by USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :
In addition, ISM construction PMI is released on the second business day of the month, followed by services on the third business day. Forex traders will look to these releases to determine the risks at any given time in the market.
EURUSD M5 : 37 pips price movement by USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :
Forex Market Impact
The Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI’s are big market movers.
When these reports come out at 10:30 AM ET, currencies can become very
volatile. Since these economic releases are based on the previous
month’s historical data gathered directly from industry professionals,
Forex traders can determine if the US economy is expanding or
contracting.
Forex traders will compare the previous month’s number with the forecasted number that economists have published. If the released PMI number is better than the previous number and higher than the forecasted number, the US dollar tends to rally. This is where fundamental and technical analysis comes together to create a trade setup.
AUDUSD M5 : 21 pips price movement by USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :
In the example above, notice how the better than expected PMI number
triggered a US dollar rally against the Euro. As seen in the chart above
of the EURUSD, the ISM Non-Manufacturing was not only above 50 but at
55.4, beat the forecasts calling for a drop from 54.4 to 54.0.
When an economic release beats expectations, like in the example above,
sharp fast moves can result. In this case, EURUSD dropped 22 pips in 15
minutes. Traders often choose the Euro as the “anti-dollar” to take
advantage of capital flows between two of the largest economies.
The Euro zone has a large liquid capital markets which can absorb the huge waves of capital seeking refuge from the U.S. So a weak US ISM Non-Manufacturing number usually leads to a dollar sell-off and a rise in the Euro. Another scenario is when the number released is in line with forecasts and/or unchanged from the previous month, then the US dollar may not react at all to the number.
AUDUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI :
PMI’s are also compiled for Euro zone countries by the Markit Group while US regional and national PMIs are compiled by ISM. As you can see, traders have good reason to pay special attention to the important releases from the Institute of Supply Management.
