Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5
Articles on mathematical models and laws of probability are interesting for many traders. Mathematics is the basis of technical indicators, and statistics is required to analyze trading results and develop strategies.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 21): Testing with Economic Calendar Data
Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.
Data Science and ML (Part 23): Why LightGBM and XGBoost outperform a lot of AI models?
These advanced gradient-=boosted decision tree techniques offer superior performance and flexibility, making them ideal for financial modeling and algorithmic trading. Learn how to leverage these tools to optimize your trading strategies, improve predictive accuracy, and gain a competitive edge in the financial markets.
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution of Social Groups (ESG)
We will consider the principle of constructing multi-population algorithms. As an example of this type of algorithm, we will have a look at the new custom algorithm - Evolution of Social Groups (ESG). We will analyze the basic concepts, population interaction mechanisms and advantages of this algorithm, as well as examine its performance in optimization problems.
Integrate Your Own LLM into EA (Part 3): Training Your Own LLM with CPU
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.
Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part IV): Optimizing Simple Grid Strategy (I)
In this fourth part, we revisit the Simple Hedge and Simple Grid Expert Advisors (EAs) developed earlier. Our focus shifts to refining the Simple Grid EA through mathematical analysis and a brute force approach, aiming for optimal strategy usage. This article delves deep into the mathematical optimization of the strategy, setting the stage for future exploration of coding-based optimization in later installments.
Causal inference in time series classification problems
In this article, we will look at the theory of causal inference using machine learning, as well as the custom approach implementation in Python. Causal inference and causal thinking have their roots in philosophy and psychology and play an important role in our understanding of reality.
Spurious Regressions in Python
Spurious regressions occur when two time series exhibit a high degree of correlation purely by chance, leading to misleading results in regression analysis. In such cases, even though variables may appear to be related, the correlation is coincidental and the model may be unreliable.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 20): Symbolic Regression
Symbolic Regression is a form of regression that starts with minimal to no assumptions on what the underlying model that maps the sets of data under study would look like. Even though it can be implemented by Bayesian Methods or Neural Networks, we look at how an implementation with Genetic Algorithms can help customize an expert signal class usable in the MQL5 wizard.
Population optimization algorithms: Binary Genetic Algorithm (BGA). Part II
In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.
Population optimization algorithms: Binary Genetic Algorithm (BGA). Part I
In this article, we will explore various methods used in binary genetic and other population algorithms. We will look at the main components of the algorithm, such as selection, crossover and mutation, and their impact on the optimization. In addition, we will study data presentation methods and their impact on optimization results.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 19): Bayesian Inference
Bayesian inference is the adoption of Bayes Theorem to update probability hypothesis as new information is made available. This intuitively leans to adaptation in time series analysis, and so we have a look at how we could use this in building custom classes not just for the signal but also money-management and trailing-stops.
A feature selection algorithm using energy based learning in pure MQL5
In this article we present the implementation of a feature selection algorithm described in an academic paper titled,"FREL: A stable feature selection algorithm", called Feature weighting as regularized energy based learning.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 18): Neural Architecture Search with Eigen Vectors
Neural Architecture Search, an automated approach at determining the ideal neural network settings can be a plus when facing many options and large test data sets. We examine how when paired Eigen Vectors this process can be made even more efficient.
Data Science and ML (Part 22): Leveraging Autoencoders Neural Networks for Smarter Trades by Moving from Noise to Signal
In the fast-paced world of financial markets, separating meaningful signals from the noise is crucial for successful trading. By employing sophisticated neural network architectures, autoencoders excel at uncovering hidden patterns within market data, transforming noisy input into actionable insights. In this article, we explore how autoencoders are revolutionizing trading practices, offering traders a powerful tool to enhance decision-making and gain a competitive edge in today's dynamic markets.
Developing a Replay System (Part 38): Paving the Path (II)
Many people who consider themselves MQL5 programmers do not have the basic knowledge that I will outline in this article. Many people consider MQL5 to be a limited tool, but the actual reason is that they do not have the required knowledge. So, if you don't know something, don't be ashamed of it. It's better to feel ashamed for not asking. Simply forcing MetaTrader 5 to disable indicator duplication in no way ensures two-way communication between the indicator and the Expert Advisor. We are still very far from this, but the fact that the indicator is not duplicated on the chart gives us some confidence.
The Group Method of Data Handling: Implementing the Combinatorial Algorithm in MQL5
In this article we continue our exploration of the Group Method of Data Handling family of algorithms, with the implementation of the Combinatorial Algorithm along with its refined incarnation, the Combinatorial Selective Algorithm in MQL5.
Developing a Replay System (Part 37): Paving the Path (I)
In this article, we will finally begin to do what we wanted to do much earlier. However, due to the lack of "solid ground", I did not feel confident to present this part publicly. Now I have the basis to do this. I suggest that you focus as much as possible on understanding the content of this article. I mean not simply reading it. I want to emphasize that if you do not understand this article, you can completely give up hope of understanding the content of the following ones.
Developing a Replay System (Part 36): Making Adjustments (II)
One of the things that can make our lives as programmers difficult is assumptions. In this article, I will show you how dangerous it is to make assumptions: both in MQL5 programming, where you assume that the type will have a certain value, and in MetaTrader 5, where you assume that different servers work the same.
Population optimization algorithms: Micro Artificial immune system (Micro-AIS)
The article considers an optimization method based on the principles of the body's immune system - Micro Artificial Immune System (Micro-AIS) - a modification of AIS. Micro-AIS uses a simpler model of the immune system and simple immune information processing operations. The article also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of Micro-AIS compared to conventional AIS.
Developing a Replay System (Part 35): Making Adjustments (I)
Before we can move forward, we need to fix a few things. These are not actually the necessary fixes but rather improvements to the way the class is managed and used. The reason is that failures occurred due to some interaction within the system. Despite attempts to find out the cause of such failures in order to eliminate them, all these attempts were unsuccessful. Some of these cases make no sense, for example, when we use pointers or recursion in C/C++, the program crashes.
Population optimization algorithms: Bacterial Foraging Optimization - Genetic Algorithm (BFO-GA)
The article presents a new approach to solving optimization problems by combining ideas from bacterial foraging optimization (BFO) algorithms and techniques used in the genetic algorithm (GA) into a hybrid BFO-GA algorithm. It uses bacterial swarming to globally search for an optimal solution and genetic operators to refine local optima. Unlike the original BFO, bacteria can now mutate and inherit genes.
Developing a Replay System (Part 34): Order System (III)
In this article, we will complete the first phase of construction. Although this part is fairly quick to complete, I will cover details that were not discussed previously. I will explain some points that many do not understand. Do you know why you have to press the Shift or Ctrl key?
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution Strategies, (μ,λ)-ES and (μ+λ)-ES
The article considers a group of optimization algorithms known as Evolution Strategies (ES). They are among the very first population algorithms to use evolutionary principles for finding optimal solutions. We will implement changes to the conventional ES variants and revise the test function and test stand methodology for the algorithms.
Overcoming ONNX Integration Challenges
ONNX is a great tool for integrating complex AI code between different platforms, it is a great tool that comes with some challenges that one must address to get the most out of it, In this article we discuss the common issues you might face and how to mitigate them.
Developing a Replay System (Part 33): Order System (II)
Today we will continue to develop the order system. As you will see, we will be massively reusing what has already been shown in other articles. Nevertheless, you will receive a small reward in this article. First, we will develop a system that can be used with a real trading server, both from a demo account or from a real one. We will make extensive use of the MetaTrader 5 platform, which will provide us with all the necessary support from the beginning.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 16): Principal Component Analysis with Eigen Vectors
Principal Component Analysis, a dimensionality reducing technique in data analysis, is looked at in this article, with how it could be implemented with Eigen values and vectors. As always, we aim to develop a prototype expert-signal-class usable in the MQL5 wizard.
News Trading Made Easy (Part 1): Creating a Database
News trading can be complicated and overwhelming, in this article we will go through steps to obtain news data. Additionally we will learn about the MQL5 Economic Calendar and what it has to offer.
Population optimization algorithms: Changing shape, shifting probability distributions and testing on Smart Cephalopod (SC)
The article examines the impact of changing the shape of probability distributions on the performance of optimization algorithms. We will conduct experiments using the Smart Cephalopod (SC) test algorithm to evaluate the efficiency of various probability distributions in the context of optimization problems.
Population optimization algorithms: Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA) algorithm. Part II
The first part was devoted to the well-known and popular algorithm - simulated annealing. We have thoroughly considered its pros and cons. The second part of the article is devoted to the radical transformation of the algorithm, which turns it into a new optimization algorithm - Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA).
Population optimization algorithms: Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm. Part I
The Simulated Annealing algorithm is a metaheuristic inspired by the metal annealing process. In the article, we will conduct a thorough analysis of the algorithm and debunk a number of common beliefs and myths surrounding this widely known optimization method. The second part of the article will consider the custom Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA) algorithm.
Quantitative analysis in MQL5: Implementing a promising algorithm
We will analyze the question of what quantitative analysis is and how it is used by major players. We will create one of the quantitative analysis algorithms in the MQL5 language.
The Group Method of Data Handling: Implementing the Multilayered Iterative Algorithm in MQL5
In this article we describe the implementation of the Multilayered Iterative Algorithm of the Group Method of Data Handling in MQL5.
Population optimization algorithms: Nelder–Mead, or simplex search (NM) method
The article presents a complete exploration of the Nelder-Mead method, explaining how the simplex (function parameter space) is modified and rearranged at each iteration to achieve an optimal solution, and describes how the method can be improved.
Population optimization algorithms: Differential Evolution (DE)
In this article, we will consider the algorithm that demonstrates the most controversial results of all those discussed previously - the differential evolution (DE) algorithm.
Python, ONNX and MetaTrader 5: Creating a RandomForest model with RobustScaler and PolynomialFeatures data preprocessing
In this article, we will create a random forest model in Python, train the model, and save it as an ONNX pipeline with data preprocessing. After that we will use the model in the MetaTrader 5 terminal.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (14): Multi Objective Timeseries Forecasting with STF
Spatial Temporal Fusion which is using both ‘space’ and time metrics in modelling data is primarily useful in remote-sensing, and a host of other visual based activities in gaining a better understanding of our surroundings. Thanks to a published paper, we take a novel approach in using it by examining its potential to traders.
Population optimization algorithms: Spiral Dynamics Optimization (SDO) algorithm
The article presents an optimization algorithm based on the patterns of constructing spiral trajectories in nature, such as mollusk shells - the spiral dynamics optimization (SDO) algorithm. I have thoroughly revised and modified the algorithm proposed by the authors. The article will consider the necessity of these changes.
Data Science and Machine Learning(Part 21): Unlocking Neural Networks, Optimization algorithms demystified
Dive into the heart of neural networks as we demystify the optimization algorithms used inside the neural network. In this article, discover the key techniques that unlock the full potential of neural networks, propelling your models to new heights of accuracy and efficiency.
Population optimization algorithms: Intelligent Water Drops (IWD) algorithm
The article considers an interesting algorithm derived from inanimate nature - intelligent water drops (IWD) simulating the process of river bed formation. The ideas of this algorithm made it possible to significantly improve the previous leader of the rating - SDS. As usual, the new leader (modified SDSm) can be found in the attachment.
Cross-validation and basics of causal inference in CatBoost models, export to ONNX format
The article proposes the method of creating bots using machine learning.