FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 16: June 2012)
Although the single European currency looks oversold, it could continue to fall in the near term and any pleasant surprises from economic statistics are likely to have a limited and short-lived effect. The market is not concerned at the moment about the state of the Eurozone economy but about the possibility of an early and tragic finale to the Greek drama, the consequences of which will cancel all hopes for economic growth in the foreseeable future. The election is on the seventeenth of June and a two-week moratorium on any polls on support for one party or another will be in effect, meaning two weeks of total uncertainty.
In the run-up to the election, some rebalancing of speculators' exposure may be hoped for, but the market seems to have been driven by real money accounts lately, which gives reason to expect a continued negative sentiment.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, point out that the chances of a favourable election outcome are not too high. According to them, there are four scenarios:
Syriza forms a coalition with other extreme left-wing parties. This scenario is the most negative for the euro and suggests high risks of an imminent exit of Greece from the Eurozone, although it looks unlikely - judging by the latest polls, there might not be enough votes to form a government anyway.
Syriza joins the centrists in abandoning its demands. A more positive outcome for the bulls, but an extremely unlikely development given that Syriza's popularity was based precisely on criticism of the budget-cutting measures.
Technocratic government. A suitable solution for some time, which will have a short-term positive effect on the euro. However, investors in that case are likely to remain sceptical and the durability of such an alliance is questionable. This scenario is slightly more likely than the previous ones.
National Democracy and PASOK, possibly with the help of one or two smaller parties, form a government. The odds, according to Morgan Stanley strategists, are 50/50 or slightly less. Such an outcome would be positive for the Euro and at least it would calm the markets for a while and give hope that Greece stays in Eurozone.
However, it is not clear to what extent the creditors are ready to revise the terms of the financial aid to Greece. Meanwhile, failure to form a government in light of recent statements by European officials will raise fears about Greece's ability to meet its financial obligations expiring in the near future. Source: Forexpf.ru - Forex News
there is so much negative stuff in it, you have to read it all, but the eu is doing badly... oh, so bad )))) but i am doing well ))))))))
According to my miracle index EUR EUR has been rising for the third day already and EURUSD is not showing any signs
At the moment the index is in decline, if it recovers the minimum, it may go down
It's not unheard of for Europe to find oil in a reservoir of pure gold
As always, the forecasts do not work and the exchange rate turned around and went up to 1.2436
The euro/dollar pair is recovering from the lows. It has already reached $1.2345, targeting the $1.2350/70 offensive. The dollar/yen also continued a corrective pullback to Y78.25 and the euro/yen reached Y96.50.
Market correction in progress
The euro/dollar pair is recovering from the lows. It has already reached $1.2345, targeting the $1.2350/70 offensive. The dollar/yen also continued the corrective pullback to Y78.25 and the euro/yen reached Y96.50.
where were you 2 hours ago )))
As always, the forecasts do not work, the exchange rate turned around and went up to 1.2436
Sometimes it's not the forecast that fails but the belief in it ;)
Sometimes it's not the forecast that fails, but the belief in it ;)
Faith is a tricky thing sometimes money is tight, but okay, the current situation with the indices
Here's my plan for the next two years
1 By the end of the summer to earn 5 thousand cui for a new depot (3600 left to earn)... 2 to come up with a break-even strategy and make at least 1000 a month on forex... 3 to increase the deposit up to 20-30 grand ... this first year until next summer
Year 2... earn a million, have a daughter, go as far away as possible from kazakhstan )))))
I'm kidding, but you can't live without goals ))))))))
on the red day should close...
Here's my plan for the next two years
1 By the end of the summer to earn 5 thousand Ue for a new depot (3600 left to earn)... 2 to come up with a break-even strategy and make at least 1000 a month on forex... 3 to increase the deposit up to 20-30 grand ... this first year until next summer
Year 2... earn a million, have a daughter, go as far away as possible from kazakhstan )))))
I'm kidding, but you can't live without goals ))))))))
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Happy first day of summer 2012 for all
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