The interaction of markets. - page 16
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... so maybe there is a correlation, and maybe there is no correlation at all. The main mantra of statistics: the presence of a correlation does not mean there is a causal relationship.
There are plenty of examples where the correlation is close to one and there is no link. Imports of fresh lemons and deaths on US roads:
Specially for you:
1. Correlation is an effect, not a cause. If it is close to -1 or 1, then there is some reason why the two series are related, except for the correlation between imports of fresh lemons and road deaths in the US.
NiKkel 21.05.2010 19:47
And anyway, oh MASTER, why are you clinging to the correlation? Go on about the interaction of markets!
My disciple, I am only clinging to the truth.
P.S. correlation was not me, but who remembers it now :)
MASTER is silent on the yen. This means that from a MASTER perspective the yen is one of the most difficult currencies to predict. The correlation of the yen with other assets is weak, dangling as the CBR sees fit:
JPY
GBP
0.75
EUR
0.46
AUD
0.21
CAD
-0.28
CHF
0.01
NZD
0.32
GOLD
-0.55
QM
0.70
My pupil, don't read my posts well, in which I said that in calculating the correlation the main thing is to decide for which periodto calculateit.So your calculations are worthless.
The yen forecast is quite simple, it is very similar to the dollar - crisis, all into yen and dollar, coming out of the crisis all from yen and dollar. As for the USD/JPYpair , it is an interesting question what will happen next.
Right now the yen is very expensive, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 200%, which is the highest among developed and even most underdeveloped countries, although it is also the cheapest, and as theglobal crisis ends the yen will go down, and Japan itself will benefit from it, because
- Exports exceed imports
- devalue debt
- Japan does not want the yen to be a world currency, unlike the US for which it is a matter of principle and a too weak dollar has serious political risks
My student, don't read my posts very well when I said that the main thing in calculating the correlation is to determine the period for whichto calculateit.So your calculations are worthless.
The yen forecast is quite simple, it is very similar to the dollar - crisis, all into yen and dollar, coming out of the crisis all from yen and dollar. As for the USD/JPYpair , it is an interesting question what will happen next.
Right now the yen is very expensive, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 200%, which is the highest among developed and even most underdeveloped countries, although it is also the cheapest, and as theglobal crisis ends the yen will go down, and Japan itself will benefit from it, because
- Exports exceed imports
- devalue debt
- Japan does not want the yen to be a world currency, unlike the US for which it is a matter of principle and a too weak dollar has serious political risks
You shouldn't have removed it!
They will continue to be stewed in their own porridge and there will be no benefit