The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Pap
When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy, Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.
In his previous book, The Dollar Crisis (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.
- Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great Depression
- Introduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years ahead
- Offers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown
Alarming but essential reading, The New Depression explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.
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Here's a summary of the points discussed:
1. The book starts with a discussion of fractional reserve banking,
observing the connection between debt and money and how debt and
inflation go together.
2. Richard views the current monetary system as flawed and in trouble,
but does not view a return to a gold standard of any kind as possible.
Rather, he thinks the best hope is for governments to attempt to borrow
at very low rates and invest not in consumption but in growth -- invest
in projects that will offer a high economic return. He cites investing
in a new energy grid as an example.
3. Richard does not view China dumping US Treasuries, or the world
decoupling from the dollar as a viable threat. This seems to be part of
why he believes there are a few more years left where low interest rates
are achievable.
4. In terms of investments, Richard favors real estate that can be turned into rental income. He finds public stocks to be a bit too close to the derivatives crisis, and does not think gold is immune to a severe decline if growth cannot be obtained.
