US NFP likely added another 230k workers in March - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the slowdown in US jobs growth in January proved to be transitory as the pace of job gains picked up notably in February. 


“In March, employment indicators from the manufacturing sector point to fewer layoffs. Also, on a more broad level, initial and continuing claims data remain stable at very low levels. Currently, our March Private Payrolls tracking estimate points to another month of +200k job gains. Taking all this into account, we forecast that nonfarm payrolls added another 230k workers in March with 5k of those workers coming from the government sector, implying that private payrolls added 225k workers. 

We expect the pace of job losses in the manufacturing sector to slow to -2k in March from -16k in February. Although we expect strong job gains in March, we think it is a relatively high bar for the unemployment rate to trend lower in March due to the recent pickup in the participation rate. 

As such, we forecast the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.9% in March. Last, we expect average hourly earnings to grow by 0.24% m-o-m (2.2% y-o-y), rebounding from a 0.11% decline in February.”

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