Barclays - 'we recommend remaining short EURUSD'

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.09 18:03

Goldman Sachs about Next Week's FOMC: 'the first hike is not likely to come until December' (based on efxnews article)

Goldman Sachs made some forecast concerning USD related to the FOMC meeting which will be held next week on Thursday:

1. "With an all-important FOMC meeting coming up next week, focus on the USD factor may increase once again. That has not typically been helpful for EM FX in recent years. But given our US Economics team’s view that the first hike is not likely to come until December and given the very sharp sell-off in EM FX in recent days, some stabilisation is certainly possible in the event of a dovish outcome."
2. "This would argue for some near-term caution in chasing the rapid moves of recent days. However, such a reprieve is likely to prove temporary, in our view, because the underlying external and internal adjustments are not complete, and we continue to see room for EM FX weakness versus the USD to extend in the medium term."
   

Just to remind about next week's FOMC metting:

2015-09-17 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.50% or 0.25%
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
if hawkish > expected = (for USD in our case)

[USD - FOMC Statement] = It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.