UBS: Trade Ideas for EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 18:18

EURUSD moves back toward trend line and MA resistance (based on forexlive article)

'The EURUSD was able to move back above the 100 day MA at the 1.10379 level and we are now seeing a further move higher in the pair. Earlier today, the price extended to the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and a topside trend line (see blue circles) and held. The price is looking toward that same combination. This time it is a bit lower at the 1.1088.'

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.07 08:04

Deutsche Bank - What Risk Resilience Implies For Grexit & The EUR (based on efxnews article)

1. "Opinion is divided between the following two trains of thought: i) that the market is still optimistic that a negotiated settlement can be reached and Grexit averted. Or, ii) Grexit is no longer seen as particularly disruptive for global markets, at least in the short-term. Importantly i) and ii) are deeply inter-connected."
   
2. "The most important aspect of the latest risk resilience is that it has dramatically weakened Greece’s negotiating power. Market resilience adds to the prospects of either Grexit, or Greece agreeing to terms that are not that different from what was on offer prior to the referendum, which may not be credible as a long-term solution."
3. "So where does this leave the EUR? The worst case scenario, we have been staring at, notably Grexit, has not hurt the EUR much for now, while the best case scenarios (a negotiated settlement) are not a great reason to buy the EUR either, not least because it will be tough to reach a deal that has long-term credibility," DB adds.
4. "One implication is that there is definitely a case to be made to sell short-dated (1m or 2m) realized EUR/USD volatility, especially versus implied vols that will remain pumped up by uncertainty. We still like EUR/USD digital risk reversal trades, where selling 3m 1.14 strikes can finance a 3m 1.08 put at close to zero cost, and the timeline potentially covers a Grexit, or a September Fed tightening."