Price & Time: Big Week for the Aussie

• EUR/USD nearing important support zone
• Important cycle turn window in Crude
• Defining week for AUD/USD?

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD remains under pressure since failing at the 38% retracement of the May/June decline earlier in the month near 1.3690
• Our near-term trend bias is negative in the euro while below 1.3690
• A daily close under the 61.8% retracement of the June/July advance is needed to signal a downside resumption
• An important cycle turn window is eyed this week
• A move over 1.3690 will turn us posittive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Square, but euro looks like it might try to turn higher this week.

Price & Time Analysis: CRUDE

• CRUDE has come under steady pressure since failing near the 78.6% retracement of the late 2013 decline in the 107.70 area
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in Crude while below 104.20
• A daily close under the 50% retracement of the April/June advance at 103.20 is needed to set up a new leg lower in the commodity
• A turn window of some importance is eyed over the next couple of days
• A daily close back over 104.20 will turn us positive on Crude

Crude Strategy: Like reducing short positions into this turn window. Will look to go long on a move back through 104.20.

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

This week is shaping up to be an important one for the Australian Dollar. In addition to a major cycle turn window that we see in AUD/NZD around the end of the week several cyclical techniques are pointing to a key period in AUD/USD around mid-week. Is the exchange rate setting up for a secondary high or is it about to resume its steady trend higher? The price action over the next 48 hours or so should be very telling. Fibonacci retracements between .9415 and .9435 are potentially important, but the main level we will be focused on is the 8th square root relationship of the year’s low near .9460 which is also the 2Q high. If a secondary high is in the works that would be an ideal spot for it to occur. If the rate can close over .9460 a trend resumption is likely underway. Any weakness under last week’s low would cast serious doubt on the positive scenario.