Intra-Day Fundamentals - FOMC Press Conference With Fed Chair Yellen With Great Price Movement For All The Pairs

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.18 05:54

EURUSD rises on the Feds give and take statement, then comes back off (based on forexlive article)

CE Inflation projections are lower to 1% -1.6% from 1.6% – 1.9% but the Core PCE they only lowered by 0.1% to 1.5%-1.8% from 1.6% -1.9%.

As Adam points out there is a lot of hedging going on.

Technically, the EURUSD has found support at the 200 hour MA on the first dip after the initial rise. That level is currently at the 1.2404 level. The 1 minute chart above shows the up and down volatility and the bounce off that level.   If the market is to turn, it needs to get below this level.

On the topside the 100 hour MA at the 1.2450 area saw price action remain above that MA for a total of 12 minutes. The move back below, has shown the disappointment.  We will see if Yellen can now push the pair one way or the other.  .

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.18 17:03

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Prices Retreat Below 1.24 Mark (based on dailyfx article)

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 1.2324, 1.2249, 1.2173
• Resistance:1.2418, 1.2569, 1.2676

The Euro turned sharply lower against the US Dollar, with sellers reclaiming a foothold below the 1.24 figure. A daily close below the intersection of falling wedge top resistance-turned-support and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2324 exposes the 50% level at 1.2249. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib at 1.2418 opens the door for a challenge of the December 16 high at 1.2569.

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short with prices in close proximity to support. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal suggests taking up the long side is premature. We will remain flat for now, waiting for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.19 03:52

EUR/USD - Euro Sinks As Yellen Hints At Rate Hike In Mid-2015 (adapted from seekingalpha article)

EUR/USD is steady on Thursday, following the euro’s sharp losses following the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday. In the European session, the pair is trading slightly above the 1.23 line. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate rose to 105.5 points. Later in the day, the US will release Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

The shaky euro took another tumble on Wednesday, courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Previous Fed policy statements have usually stated that the Fed would maintain low rates for a “considerable time”, but the December statement changed terminology, saying the Fed would be “patient” before raising rates. In a follow-press conference, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen was less ambiguous, saying that the Fed was unlikely to raise rates for the “next couple of meetings”. The markets took this to mean that a rate hike is in the works, but not before April. The news sent the euro sprawling, as the currency lost about 170 points on Wednesday.

There was good news out of Germany, the locomotive of the Eurozone. Ifo Business Climate, a key indicator, improved to 105.5 points, up from 104.4 a month earlier. The strong reading was very close to the forecast of 105.4 points. We’ll get a look at consumer confidence on Friday, with the release of GfK German Consumer Climate. The markets are expecting a strong reading of 8.9 points.

Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation remains at low levels, and there were no surprises as Eurozone CPI dipped to 0.3% in November, down from 0.4% a month earlier. Persistent efforts from the ECB have not improved matters, and the danger of deflation has risen with the crash in oil prices. Germany has not been immune to weak inflation, with German Final CPI coming in at a flat 0.0% in November.