Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader - page 5
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INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 11 Jun 2010 07:16 GMT
Range Forecast
91.40 / 91.65
Resistance/Support
R: 91.76 / 91.92 / 92.10
S: 91.28 / 90.96 / 90.84
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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 11 Jun 2010 08:08 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2090 / 1.2130
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2149/1.2165/1.2216
S: 1.2074/1.2041/1.2009
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INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 11 Jun 2010 07:57 GMT
Range Forecast
1.1405 / 1.1435
Resistance/Support
R: 1.1462/1.1485/1.1506
S: 1.1397/1.1369/1.1327
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INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 11 Jun 2010 08:05 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4690 / 1.4730
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4771/1.4790/1.4833
S: 1.4655/1.4608/1.4577
Market Review - 11/06/2010 21:43 GMT
Dollar gains on concerns over economic recovery
Despite falling for 3 consecutive days versus the euro, dollar gained on Friday after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, rekindling concerns that global economic recovery remained fragile and prompted risk aversion activities.
Although the single currency ratcheted higher to 1.2153, the pair fell sharply to 1.2045 after the unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales figures, retail sales dropped by 1.2% in May versus economists forecast of an increase of 0.2%. This was also the biggest and first decline recorded since the reading of -2.2% in September 2009, however, cross-buying in euro provided support to the single currency throughout the day as eur/gbp rose from 0.8210 to 0.8327 while eur/chf surged from 1.3816 to 1.3947 and the single currency rebounded strongly from said low in late NY session.
The British pound initially edged up to 1.4760 in European morning as traders braced for a better-than-expected U.K. industrial and manufacturing production data and active cross-buying in sterling lifted price initially. However, the data turned out to be weaker-than-expected and a wave of long liquidation sent cable sharply lower and sterling fell to as low as 1.4505 in NY afternoon before staging a minor rebound. U.K. industrial and manufacturing production in April came in at -0.4% m/m and 2.1% y/y (forecast was 0.4% and 2.2%) and -0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y (consensus forecast was 0.5% m/m and 3.8% y/y) respectively.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone in Asia and climbed to 91.79 on renewed cross selling in yen due to early rise in Asian stocks and European stocks. However, the pair briefly dipped to 91.20 in NY morning after the weak US retail sales figures. Despite the aforesaid retreat, the pair later rebounded on short-covering before moving sideways and ending the day at 91.67. On economic front, U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 75.5, higher than the economists' forecast of 74.5, from previous reading of 73.6.
Aud/usd and nzd/usd also gained strength in the late US session on improved risk appetite as DJI pared morning losses and turned into positive territory in NY afternoon lifted by gains in NASDAQ which rose by 1.12%. DJI rose by 0.38%, aud/usd climbed to 0.8507 and nzd/usd rose to 0.6912.
In other news, ECB's Stark told Reuters Insider that there would be no alternative to the euro for Europeans. Stark added the single currency is the future and said the debt crisis would not limited to the euro area of regions. Separately, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said that 'We will pay our debt' and 'Greece's fiscal consolidation program is on track and will remain so.'
Meanwhile, China said it would keep on high alert on euro zone crisis but euro zone crisis helped China ease inflationary pressure as China's CPI accelerated to a 19-month high of 3.1% in May y/y.
Economic data to be released in next week include: New Zealand Retail sales , Japan Industrial prod'n, Japan Capacity utilisation , Swiss Combined PPI , EU Industrial prod'n on Monday, U.K. RICS house prices , Australia Reserve Bank's Jun Minutes , Japan BOJ rate decision , U.K. CPI, RPI , DCLG house prices , Germany ZEW index , EU Employment , Trade balance , U.S. Empire state mfg, Net LT TIC flows , NAHB housing mrkt index on Tuesday, Australia Westpac leading economic index , Japan BoJ Monthly Report , Machine tools orders , U.K. Claimant count , ILO unemployment rate , Swiss ZEW index , EU HICP , Labour cost , U.S. Building permits and Housing Starts , PPI , Capacity utilisation and Industrial prod'n on Wednesday, Swiss SNB rate decision , U.K. Retail sales , U.S. CPI , Current account, Real earnings , Jobless claims, Leading indicators on Thursday, Germany PPI , U.K. PSNCR and PS net borrowing , Canada Leading indicators on Friday.
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4648
Last Update At 14 Jun 2010 06:11 GMT
Cable's firm breach of 1.4615 suggests nr term
rise fm last Friday's low of 1.4505 to retrace fall
fm 1.4760 has resumed n further gain to 1.4660/63
is likely, however, nr term o/bot condition shud
cap price at 1.4695 n yield retreat later.
For st trade, buy on dips with stop as indicat-
ed, break wud bring weakness to 1.4570.
Range Forecast
1.4620 / 1.4654
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4654/1.4686/1.4730
S: 1.4615/1.4545/1.4505
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INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD: 1.2252
Late Update At 14 Jun 2010 09:37 GMT
Current anticipated breach of 1.2208 confirms
erratic upmove fm the 4-year low of 1.1876 to
retrace recent decline has resumed n further gain
to 1.2238 n then 1.2250/55 is likely, however,
nr term loss of momentum wud cap price at 1.2278.
For st trade, buy again at market with stop as
indicated, break risks stronger pullback to 1.2188.
Range Forecast
1.2240 / 1.2270
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2238/1.2278/1.2342
S: 1.2153/1.2111/1.2074
acetraderfx.com
Market Review - 14/06/2010 21:26 GMT
Euro pares gains after Moody's downgrades Greek bonds to junk level
The single currency initially traded with a firm undertone on Monday as euro surged above last Friday's high of 1.2153 to 1.2208 before staging a minor pullback. Although renewed buying at 1.2164 lifted the pair up and euro eventually hit an intra-day high of 1.2298 in NY mid-day, the single currency retreated from said high and ended the day at 1.2220 after Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greece government bond ratings by four notches to Ba1, which would be a junk status, but outlook was 'stable'. Moody's also downgraded Greece's short-term rating to not-prime from Prime-1 as the rating agency expected the Greece government would struggle to narrow budget deficit and maintain economic growth. DJI erased all early gains and ended the day down by 20.18 points at 10190.89 after Moody's downgrade.
Earlier, euro was supported as rebound in global stocks and upbeat European industrial data bolstered risk appetite. Nikkei 225 ended the day up by 1.80%, FTSE, DAX and CAC 40 were seen closing up by 0.74%, 1.28% and 1.96% while DJI once rose by 117 points before Moody's downgrade. Eurozone industrial production in April rose by 0.8% m/m and 9.5% y/y, which was the largest year-on-year percentage gain in almost 2 decades.
In other news, French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss about overcoming deep-rooted disagreements on European economic governance. European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said Europe's emergency measures are aimed at preventing the sovereign debt crisis triggering another banking and economic crisis.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback once rose briefly to 92.12 but the pair swiftly retreated from there and tumbled to 91.42 in NY afternoon as DJI pared all initial gains after Moody's downgrade on Greek bonds.
The British pound rose initially from 1.4545 and then climbed above Friday's high of 1.4760 to 1.4810 in NY morning in tandem with euro on the rally in global equities. However, cable retreated due to Moody's downgrade on Greece but the pair managed to hold most of its gains and ended the day at 1.4748.
The Bank of England's chief economists said 'Britain's economic recovery is likely to gather pace over the coming year, but the effects of the financial crisis, which has entered a new phase, will linger'.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: U.K. RICS house prices , Australia Reserve Bank's Jun Minutes , Japan BOJ rate decision , U.K. CPI, RPI , DCLG house prices , Germany ZEW index , EU Employment , Trade balance , U.S. Empire state mfg, Export price index, Import price index, Net LT TIC flows , NAHB housing mrkt index.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD: 0.8561
Last Update At 15 Jun 2010 02:13 GMT
Aud's strg retreat to 0.8567 after y'day's resum
ption of upmove to 0.8668 in NY suggests temp. top
has been formed n sideways consolidation is envisa-
ged initially in Asia, below 0.8567 may bring stron
ger retracement to 0.8510/20.
Hold short with stop now at break-even, abv pro-
longs choppy trading n risks 0.8620.
Range Forecast
0.8540 / 0.8570
Resistance/Support
R: 0.8620/0.8668/0.8691
S: 0.8567/0.8545/0.8529
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 15 Jun 2010 04:23 GMT
Range Forecast
91.41 / 91.65
Resistance/Support
R: 91.70 / 91.97 / 92.12
S: 91.41 / 91.20 / 90.96
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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 15 Jun 2010 02:41 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2200 / 1.2230
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2233/1.2257/1.2298
S: 1.2195/1.2163/1.2127
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 15 Jun 2010 02:39 GMT
Range Forecast
1.1390 / 1.1420
Resistance/Support
R: 1.1441/1.1469/1.1506
S: 1.1398/1.1384/1.1350
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INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 15 Jun 2010 02:43 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4735 / 1.4770
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4777/1.4810/1.4876
S: 1.4730/1.4715/1.4690
acetraderfx.com