The Gartley Pattern - Truth or Fiction?

 

Many of you are probably familiar with the Gartley pattern; an extension of the Elliot Wave principal that conforms to the Fibonacci sequence. It looks like this:

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If you are not familiar with it, look it up on google. There is plenty of information about it.

Supposedly this pattern predicts price direction with an astounding 70% accuracy. Recently however, I have been experimenting with a Gartley EA based on the ZUP86 indicator and the results have been... less than impressive.

Unfortunately I cannot post this EA because it is from the paid section of a private forum, but the indicator is already linked from this very forum: https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/173439/page28

So tell me, what do you guys think? Is it all hocus pocus and pretty lines, or is there something to it?

This appeared on the M30 EURUSD a few hours ago. Its situations like this that make me feel like this is worth investigating further:

 

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70% accuracy is kind of crappy....

 
Pava:
70% accuracy is kind of crappy....

How so? If I have a 1:1 risk/reward ratio and a 70% win rate all the time...how can that be a bad thing?

 

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mfurlend:
How so? If I have a 1:1 risk/reward ratio and a 70% win rate all the time...how can that be a bad thing?

My personal preference...I don't like loosing too many times...30% is way too much....

P.S.:..In trading you cannot have 1:1...

 
Pava:
My personal preference...I don't like loosing too many times...30% is way too much.... P.S.:..In trading you cannot have 1:1...

Why can't you have 1:1? Say there is a 3 point spread, your takeprofit is 13 and your stoploss is 10. Isn't that 1:1?

Also, if you have that kind of win rate then are you a multimillionaire? If so, teach me your secrets

 

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mfurlend:
Why can't you have 1:1? Say there is a 3 point spread, your takeprofit is 13 and your stoploss is 10. Isn't that 1:1? Also, if you have that kind of win rate then are you a multimillionaire? If so, teach me your secrets

What you just proposed doesn't work statistically...you shorten your chances to win...therefore you are setting yourself up for a loss...trust me here...think not mathematically...think statistics...it's a little different

 

Well statistically if someone has the results to show they can do 1:1 and win 70% of the time then they will do just fine in this market. I do tend to agree with the fact that a little higher R/R of say 2:1 with a 70% W/L and you would make a killing. 70% or higher W/L IMO is pluty to be successful in this market.

-Sterling

 

Forgot to mention, if anyone else has any more experiences with the gartley pattern, I would be interested to hear them. Never really used it myself so just wondering.

-Sterling

 

Combine it with oscillators you will have great results simple as that.

 

gartley is pretty crap on it's own...

 
Pava:
70% accuracy is kind of crappy....

actually it's awesome if true.

alas it's not.

Reason: