EUR/USD: Neutral: Still neutral but upside risk is increasing.
EUR/USD traded mostly sideways for the whole of last week. That said, short-term upward momentum is picking up and the current consolidation will be likely resolved by a move higher in EUR/USD.
However, only a daily closing above the major 1.0990/95 resistance would indicate the start of a bullish phase. Overall, unless there is a move back below 1.0800 in the next few days, the risk is clearly greater on the upside.
GBP/USD: Bearish: Continue to expect a move to 1.4228 where a break could lead to acceleration lower.
Despite severely oversold conditions, there are no signs that GBP/USD is close to making a bottom.
From here, we continue to expect a move to the 2010 low of 1.4228 and a break below this level could acceleration lower towards then next support at 1.4100.
AUD/USD: Bearish: Focus on 0.6775 next.
The bearish phase that started more than a week ago is clearly intact as AUD/USD cracked through the 2015 low of 0.6890/95. The next level to focus on from here is 0.6775
NZD/USD: Bearish: Downward momentum dented but confirmation of a short-term low is only upon a break above 0.6560.
Oversold conditions suggest any NZD/USD weakness to be at a slower pace. We saw a low of 0.6382 last Friday and the quick rebound has dented the downward momentum. That said, confirmation of a shortterm low is only upon a break above 0.6560. A break below 0.6380 would target 0.6300 next.
