XAU/JPY likely to test 100-DMA at 142,514 on US NFP report
XAU/USD pair – Daily Chart
Gold prices in terms of US dollar (XAU/USD) stuck near USD 1200 levels on Thursday and finally ending lower at 1200.20 levels. XAU/USD bounced-off the crucial support at 1195 levels yet another time and hence remains resilient, giving a sustained close above that level over the past one week.
Moreover, Chinese growth outlook downgrade as well as subdued global equities continued to boost the safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. However, a firming US dollar reaching fresh twelve year highs capped the upside in XAU/USD. Currently, the pair is seen trading in a very tight range, stick around 1200 levels as markets now brace for the key US non-farm payrolls data later in the day, which is expected to set a clear direction for the yellow metal prices.
NFP data may show that the world's biggest economy is expected to have added some 240,000 non-farm jobs last month, down slightly from 257,000 in January. The downbeat data may diminish bets of a mid-year rate hike boosting the gold prices. The pair faces a strong resistance at 10-DMA placed at 1205 levels. A break above that the pair is likely to pierce through the 100-DMA located at 1215 levels on the release of NFP data and further rise to 1223 levels. In case, the data surprises on the upside, beating market estimates, gold prices may fall below the crucial support zone at 1195, opening floors to 1182 (Jan low) levels. Overall, the pair is expected to trade cautious around 1200 levels ahead of US labour market report due later in the US session.
XAU/EUR pair– Daily Chart
Gold prices in terms of Euro (XAU/EUR) extended gains and closed higher on Thursday at 1087.92 levels, holding above the critical support at 5-DMA placed at 1082.56 XAU/EUR rallied to fresh three week highs as the euro extended its slump and fell to fresh twelve year lows against the greenback at 1.0986 levels, as traders digested ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments that revealed the details around QE, which will begin on Monday.
Moreover, increased safe-haven bids for XAU amid concerns surrounding the implementation of the QE also boosted XAU/EUR. Currently, the pair trades near fresh highs at 1089.20 levels, comfortably sitting above 5-DMA at 1083.70 levels. XAU/EUR may continue trading in a narrow range and may gradually inch higher as the euro is expected to remain near lows amid a quiet trading ahead of US NFP data later in the day.
The daily RSI standing at 55.04 levels in the bullish terrain has turned flattish suggesting more of a consolidation phase with an upside bias. The pair is likely to test 1095.17 levels (March 5 High) and beyond that may test next resistance at 1100- psychological levels and XAU bulls may dominate thereon. Overall, a generalized intraday upside bias persists so long as pair holds above 5-DMA.
XAU/JPY pair – Daily Chart
Gold prices in terms of Japanese yen (XAU/JPY) closed higher on Thursday at 144,096 levels, having broken above 20-DMA located at 145,825 levels as a relatively weaker yen across the board pushed the pair higher. The pair now trades at 143,977 levels, with the upside capped by 5-DMA located at 144,230 levels.
The pair seems to have formed a doji candle on daily chart indicating a lack of clear direction as the yen remains in a side trend against the US dollar ahead of US labour market report due later today. The daily RSI at 42.24 levels has inched lower further in the bearish territory suggest more downside potential. To the downside, the pair is likely to test major support at 143,350 levels, below which selling pressure is likely intensify dragging the pair lower to test 100-DMA located at 142,514 levels.
However, a break above 5-DMA, XAU/JPY may retest 20-DMA placed at 144,676 levels. Overall, the pair is likely to remain weak on a stronger yen versus the US dollar as the US NFP data may disappoint markets and drag the greenback lower.
