Probability.

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Gennadiy Stanilevych:
Completely changed the description.

You have not completely changed the description, but made some adjustments. Please illuminate them, no need to make the work heavier.

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Suspicious financial activity of user 'bigbigbbking': +35, fail P to'bigbigbbking', email '[e-mail]'!='[e-mail]'

[Georgiy Merts]

[Uladzimir Izerski]

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Sorry. The first posts are gone.

There was a server failure. That's all right. I'll update the first notebook entry.

It is clear that few people open on rise or fall of an asset if the probability is low. There may be prediction errors in another thread. But few calculate the probability of the outcome as a percentage.

With rare exceptions I see traders who perform their analysis using percentages. They are very few and probably some of the most successful.

[Даниил Минин]

[Uladzimir Izerski]

New version 3.48 of the product AreaFiftyOne Free: New version 3.48 of the product AreaFiftyOne Free is available

[Yuriy Asaulenko]

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Yuriy Asaulenko:

Probability is purely post-primary. And you can only say something about it after many trades and not before. For example, my probability is 0.7-0.8.

But estimating the probability of a particular event even before the transaction is almost unrealistic - plus or minus a kilometre.

I disagree with you. Probability cannot be post-primary. The probability is calculated before the event occurs and is an admissible expected value.

I don't want to stoop to trivial arguments. The topic could be more interesting if we approach it with an understanding.

[Maxim Dmitrievsky]

The likelihood depends on the confidence interval, if the case falls within the f.i. then, as you wrote, it is an acceptable expected value, if it does not then it has, as you wrote, an a posteriori value and may not match the result obtained with a high degree of probability :)

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Maxim Dmitrievsky:

The probability depends on the confidence interval, if the case falls within the range of the d.i. it is, as you wrote, an acceptable expected value, if it does not then it has, as you wrote, an a posteriori value and may not match the result obtained with a high degree of probability :)

I agree with you and I certainly won't argue with Wiki. The estimation of probability comes after the event has happened.

Whether it is close to one or not is not important.

My task, purely for myself, is to determine the probability as a percentage of the outcome of an event. Specifically whether the price of the observed asset will rise or fall. I am not satisfied with an estimation of 0 or 1. I can be 60% or 30% sure, but the final result will of course still be 0 or 1.

Bookmakers know a thing or two about it)))