Attention on US Employment Statistics, Potential Shift in Dollar Weakness Trend This Week

Today, the March US employment statistics will be released. Alongside the US Consumer Price Index, it's one of the most crucial fundamental indicators for the dollar market. The consensus market expectation for the highly anticipated non-farm payroll employment figure is a slight decrease from February's 275,000 increase to 214,000. The unemployment rate is expected to improve slightly from 3.9% to 3.8%.

With the upcoming release of US employment statistics this week, adjustments are being made to the dollar's strength that has persisted since March. However, some US monetary officials have hinted at the possibility of only one rate cut by the end of the year or the postponement of rate cuts within the year. Depending on the results of the US employment statistics, if they don't show extreme weakness, there may be a renewed expectation of a decrease in the number of rate cuts, supporting the dollar market in the future while monitoring inflation trends.

However, tensions in the Middle East have reignited. While the rise in oil prices adds inflationary pressure, it's also possible that risk aversion pressures will come to the forefront. In such a scenario, there might be a temporary departure from interest rate differential trading. It's also worth keeping in mind the potential for yen strengthening pressure along with stock declines. This market is likely to be quite sensitive to news developments.

Economic indicators to be released in the overseas markets include US employment statistics (March), Canadian employment statistics (March), Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (March), among others.

In terms of speaking events, speeches are scheduled from officials like the Presidents of the Richmond and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks, as well as a Board Member of the Federal Reserve. The President of the Boston Federal Reserve will attend a conference on stablecoins. Over the weekend, Australia and New Zealand will transition to winter time.

Today's highlight is the release of the US March non-farm payroll employment figures (NFP). We plan to assess entry decisions simply by observing the market's reaction afterward, without overly committing.