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Rising 30% since lows of December, crude oil has gained following the last OPEC meeting of last year. Production was curbed 1.53 million barrels per day in January, as Saudi Arabia cut supply, despite the USA production peak of 12 million bpd. We remain positive on oil prices under current settings. Currently trading at 65.66, Brent Crude is heading along 66 short-term.
US inventories remain at 454.5 million barrels, a level not seen since November 2017, while American Petroleum Institute estimates suggest a drop in US inventories of 4.2 million barrels in the week to 22 February. The US Energy Information Administration projects only 2.94 million. Consolidation of gains will largely depend on global economic health and stable geopolitics. The OPEC + group plans to maintain cuts through the first half of 2019, with perhaps some easing in H2. The threat of a US congressional NOPEC bill – that would allow OPEC to be sued under antitrust law – could disrupt. Additionally, the discord between India (world’s 3rd largest oil buyer) and Pakistan might hit demand if it escalates.
US inventories remain at 454.5 million barrels, a level not seen since November 2017, while American Petroleum Institute estimates suggest a drop in US inventories of 4.2 million barrels in the week to 22 February. The US Energy Information Administration projects only 2.94 million. Consolidation of gains will largely depend on global economic health and stable geopolitics. The OPEC + group plans to maintain cuts through the first half of 2019, with perhaps some easing in H2. The threat of a US congressional NOPEC bill – that would allow OPEC to be sued under antitrust law – could disrupt. Additionally, the discord between India (world’s 3rd largest oil buyer) and Pakistan might hit demand if it escalates.
By Vincent Mivelaz
