Forex technical analysis: It is hard to be committed to the swing today...

In golf they talk about being committed to the swing. In trading?  Do you have a conviction.  Adam speaks a lot about fundamental convictions. In fact, he will be speaking fundamentals at the ACT traders course starting on June 24. 

Commitment has to do with trust and with the EU referendum ahead , the seas are starting to get a chop to them.  It is Friday too with polls and Sunday readings to stir the cauldron.  

So trading today is likely not about conviction but trading.

Looking at the EURUSD, the level that stand out is the 1.1244. This is where the 100 hour and 100 bar MA on the 4-hour is found. The pair has one hourly bar close below the level in the London session. That fall below took the price to the 100 day MA at the 1.12257 (the low stalled at 1.12222). Stay above keeps buyers happy.  

ON the topside, the 200 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart come in at 1.1288.  That range will likely keep the uncommitted day traders happy.