First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- regarding the behavior of EUR/USD graphical analysis had warned that the pair would first try to break through the resistance zone of 1.0900, but after one or two unsuccessful attempts would go down. If you look at the graph, it is clear that these attempts were not even two, but three, and one of them seems to have almost succeeded. But in the long run all the efforts were in vain, and the pair met Christmas in the zone of resistance at 1.0950;
- as for the GBP/USD, the analysts were right to insist on the pair moving to the sideways trend in the range from 1.4680 ÷ 1.5000 with Pivot Point 1.4890 and "bearish" sentiments at the beginning of the week. And so it happened: after a brief struggle between the "bears" and "bulls" in the area of Pivot Point, the first won with "clear advantage", and the pair literally collapsed down by 100 points. But then it remembered the forecast, quickly returned to the Pivot Point, and then rose even higher - to the upper boundary of this corridor;
- as for the future of USD/JPY the forecast was also correct. As expected, in this case the "bears" also won - not being able to break even the first resistance of 121.70, the pair went down to the lower boundary of this corridor - 120.30, where it stayed until the closing of the markets;
- but the pair USD/CHF forced us to think that the Swiss bankers have already closed their offices for the holidays - the pair did not go either up or down, deciding to remain at Pivot Point of the last three weeks – 0.9900.
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The forecast for the coming week:
First of all, I must say that all the analysts whose forecasts we normally use went on vacation, so we only have technical and graphical analysis at our disposal:
- with regards to EUR/USD, 100% indicators on H4 and 72% on D1, apparently in anticipation of Santa Claus, look straight north. But the remaining indicators and graphical analysis believe that Santa Claus lives in the south, and therefore, with the support of "polar bears" aggressively push the pair down. We learn at the end of the week which of them is right. However, we can predict with some certainty that the pair will stay in the corridor 1.0800 ÷ 1.1000 until the end of 2015;
- about the same discordant voices are heard as far as the future of the GBP/USD is concerned (it is holidays season, well, what can you do!). Graphical analysis and 50% of the indicators on the H4, and 17% indicators on D1 point to growth of the pair to the 1.5040 resistance. But the remaining indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claim that the pair will go down to the support of 1.4740 and the 1.4930 zone will be a strong resistance for it. As the week starts precisely from this area, the behavior of the pair on Monday should show which of the trends will prevail in the coming days;
- if we talk about the future of USD/JPY, it is clear that all the indicators look down. However, the graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 to believe that the pair will seek to win back the losses of the previous week and first return to the 121.15 resistance, then will re-bounce to the support of 120.25 and then will go up again - to the height of 121.45;
- for the pair USD/CHF graphical analysis also stresses out that the support for the pair will be at the 0.9850 level, from which the pair will go up - first to 1.0000, and then to its main goal - 1.0100, turning 1.0000 into support. If we talk about indicators, they are, unfortunately, as usual, of a different opinion - 100% on H4 and 67% on D1 vote for the pair fall, and if it goes below support 0.9850, then it will very quickly reach the bottom in the area 0.9800.
Happy New Year to you, colleagues, I wish you health and endless luck!
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
