First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- After the publication of our forecast for EUR/USD, according to which the pair would continue to grow and reach the zone 1.1000 ÷ 1.1100, we heard skeptics say that it could not be true. It turned out that it could. It was already on Thursday that the pair reached the height of 1.1042, and the next day, as they say in football, "issued a double", having visited the height of 1.1030;
- As for GBP/USD, we predicted growth of the pair to the zone of 1.5200 ÷ 1.5270. At the same time graphical analysis pointed out that before starting growth, the pair could go down to the 1.5055 support zone. In practice the pair first went down, although deeper than expected - to the level of 1.4957, and then, just as was predicted, it went up, having finished the week at 1.5228;
- Quite often the opinion of majority is erroneous, which has been once again confirmed by USD/JPY. It was almost unanimously that both analysts and all the tools of technical and graphical analysis predicted a side movement for the pair. However, starting from mid week the pair started falling, on Wednesday it broke through the 122.20 support and on Friday it reached the low of 120.57;
- as for the future of USD/CHF, serious doubts were expressed, and one of the scenarios considered the pair falling to the support zone of 0.9765. The pair did go down, but stalled at the 0.9800 mark without reaching the said bottom.
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The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- as for the future of EUR/USD, most indicators, graphical analysis on H1and 34% of experts vote for the continuation of the upward trend to the level of 1.1100, 66% of the experts, 25% indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4 disagree with this. According to the latter, having spent some time in side movement and having repulsed from the resistance of 1.1000, the pair should break through the 1.0900 support zone and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is at 1.0700, the next one will be 100 points below;
- for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will move in the side channel in the range 1.4900 ÷ 1.5250 with Pivot Point at 1.5000. However, most indicators on H4 and D1, and graphical analysis on the same time-frames disagree with this. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching the height of 1.5440 (rolling down to 1.5300 afterwards), and then the height of 1.5500. However, since Christmas holidays are ahead, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;
- it is evident that when drawing the future of USD/JPY, all indicators look down. But as for most analysts, they believe that the level of 120.00 will be a very strong support, bouncing off which the pair will go to the resistance of 122.20 and, possibly, even higher - to the height of 123.20;
- as for USD/CHF, 100% of indicators on H4 vote for its fall, but if we take longer time frames - D1 and W1 - 2/3 indicators already look to the north. If we talk about analysts, 30% of them believe that the pair has not yet reached its bottom in the zone 0.9650 ÷ 0.9675. At the same time 87% analysts agree that in the longer term perspective, the pair should return to marks above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives two weeks for the pair to achieve the height of 1.0250, but again adjustments should be made for the holiday period.
Certain adjustments to all forecasts will be made by publication of important economic data in the middle of the coming week.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
