Weekly economic outlook August 17-21: macrostatistics & main events
This week is expected to be relatively quiet: releases of some important statistical figures, no events to seriously disturb investors. The market will have a chance to catch some breath after the last week's dramatic events.
Today, August 17, is generally calm for most of the financial markets. Important data came from Japan: release of Q2 GDP data. An expected fall in the economy was 1.9% in annual terms, but the actual decline is only 1.6%, so the released statistics is rather favorable for the markets. However, the second important data — Consumer Spending — shrank more than expected: by 0.8% instead of 0.4%.
The Euro Area's July Trade Balance is coming today.
Tuesday, August 18, investors are waiting for the meeting minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia. China's House Price Index to be published.
A large block of price related statistics to be released in Great Britain. The main figure in this "bulk" is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July in annual and monthly terms. If the decline is greater than expected, this may cool down investors awaiting the rising interest rates of the Bank of England.
US construction report for July will be released tomorrow. The key figures include issued Building Permits and Housing Starts. In addition, on Tuesday, API (American Petroleum Institute) to publish their weekly estimates of US crude oil reserves.
Wednesday, August 19, import and export data to be released in Japan. The expected increase in exports is 5.5%, while the estimated decline in imports is 7.9%. The Trade Balance will be an additional indicator of the effectiveness of 'Abenomics'.
July unemployment data to be released in Russia.
It's going to be a quiet day in Europe, while United States will release the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is an indicator of US inflation. These figures are believed to hint at when the Fed is to start raising interest rates. The expected CPI growth in July is 0,2%.
EIA official statistics of crude oil, distillates and gasoline stocks will be the focus of the energy markets.
Thursday, August 20, will be relatively quiet in Asia. Only data on Stock Investments by Foreigners is to be released in Japan.
In Europe, investors await German PPI (producer price index) for July. United Kingdom will publish the retail sales index and volume, as well as the industrial production data.
Two important US figures to be released on Thursday: July's Existing Home Sales and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing activity. In anticipation of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve, during which many expect the first increase in the interest rates since 10 years, both of these figures are of great interest among market participants. They are important indicators of the state of the US economy.
And finally, Friday, August 21, the Asia-Pacific region to bring out only Q2 GDP data in Singapore.
More events to come in Europe. Consumer Confidence to be reported in Germany. A number of important Euro Area's indexes will be released on Friday: Manufacturing PMI , Services PMI and composite PMI.
