Next Week Forecast: the most interesting pair you can make money with - EUR/USD

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 08:18

Goldman Sachs - Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD (based on forexlive article)

Goldman Sachs made Elliot Wave technical analysis on the daily EUR/USD and those are the following comments (below their chart):

• "Has finally sustained a break above its 55-dma and the July '14 downtrend".
• "Both of these levels have been very relevant to recent price action. The 55-dma in particular held the entire decline from the May '13 high to early-Apr. '15. It should now act as important support at 1.1095."
• "The next big pivot to focus on is 1.1168; an ABC from the Jul. 20 th low. A close above will open potential for a 1.618 extension target to 1.1366. This also happens to be close to the previous two highs from May/June (1.1438-68) and a 0.618 extension from March (1.1432)."
• "Overall, seems the next two big levels are 1.1168 and then 1.1366-1.1468."

If we look at the other patterns so we can see just two situations around: short-term (forming bearish patterns) and long-term (forming bullish patterns).

Short-term scenario

This is forming bearish gartley for H12 timeframe:

This is the forming bearish retracement pattern for H8 timeframe:

Long-tern situation with bullish

Forming bullish butterfly pattern and forming bullish 3-Drives pattern for MN1:

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 09:53

BNP Paribas for USD - 'We expect to be a choppy second half of August' (based on efxnews article)

BNP Paribas are forecasting the strong USD but with the secondary ranging market condition - just because of China news on Fed expectations:

• "The underlying effective Fed funds rate has also been drifting higher over the past two weeks, reaching 15bp and suggesting some of the move in rates market pricing could reflect expectations for a move within the target range rather than a hike in the target."
  
• "The minutes to the Fed’s July meeting on Wednesday will be closely watched for more insight into Committee thinking on the timing of hikes, while a speech from San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Thursday from a conference in Indonesia may give some insight into how Fed thinking has been affected by CNY developments."
  
• "We remain patiently bullish on the USD through what we expect to be a choppy second half of August."

As we see from the chart - Dollar Index Future (DXY) is located above 100-SMA/200-SMA for bullish condition and, seems, this bullish condition will be continuing in August as well. But the choppy market was started in the end of April this year and there is no any indication that this choppy condition will be finished by the beginning of September. Thus, we can confirm the forecast made by BNP Paribas.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 20:02

Friday held the MA. Today more below. (based on forexlive article)

"The EURUSD closed last week by keeping the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) as a support level. Today in the Asia-Pacific session, the price dipped below that moving average level, and has stayed below (at least on a closing basis) since that time.  The weaker than expected Empire manufacturing has push the price back above the moving average, but last hours closing price could still not close above it. So there is some reluctance to have a momentum shift to the upside.  The current 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.11147."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 20:21

BNP Paribas: 2 Things To Look For At FOMC Minutes (based on efxnews article)

• "The key message will probably be that ‘lift-off’ is approaching and that we moved a step closer in July. A majority of FOMC participants probably still expected ‘lift-off’ to be appropriate sometime this year. As markets are already pricing this in, the minutes should present few surprises."
  
• "Two things to look for: (1) what “some” further labor-market improvement means and (2) why there was no progress report on being “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook."