Barclays evaluated the recent NFP data and made the conclusion that FOMC has already decided about what to tell during the next meeting. Barclays watched the job data and established the correlation between job market and FOMC decisions concerning the inyerest rate to be changed.
- "We believe, in line with the FOMC’s rhetoric, that the expected path of the fed funds rate for the next couple of years is probably more important than the actual date of the lift-off. In that regard, wage developments will continue to be monitored by markets to assess the speed of the normalization cycle."
- "We maintain high conviction in further EURUSD downside in the context of steadily improving US data and a likely September Fed rate hike that remains underpriced."
Thus, the bank is really expecting the interest rate to be changed in September, and this news event concerning intrerest rate changing depends on the job market data situation for the week.
