EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 02.08 - 09.08: ranging within key levels for direction

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.03 11:19

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken: Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, SP500 (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD: rejection from the 55-day MA
'The up and down move on Friday became the third consecutive rejection from the 55d ma band (since the return below it a month ago). The behavior is showing that bearish forces are at play and increasingly so given the return to a negative slope. We are thus looking for additional selling.'

USDJPY: new attempt to be above the key level
'Given the violation of the B-wave high (and a three wave setback from Thursday’s peak) there’s a high probability of a soon more successful break higher (targeting a new trend high). For today we see 124.37 as the trigger point for the next step higher.'

AUDUSD: Signs for sellers
'The spinning candle (small net move and big spikes to both sides) and the spring bottom are both signs of exhaustive sellers. There’s clearly a potential for the pair to bounce back to retest the 2001 trend line (or even back up to the 0.75- area) during the coming week.'

S&P 500: Higher again
'As long as the recent correction low remains unbroken a positive view should be kept in place (the July candle also developed into a mildly bullish piercing pattern). The entire structure since May can also be seen as an inverted head and shoulders formation, here seen as an upside continuation pattern.'

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.03 12:30

Societe Generale: EURUSD and Non-Farm Payrolls (based on efxnews article)

Societe Generale made some review for Non-Farm Employment Change report (Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry) which will be on Friday:

1. "There’s a risk that we see edgy markets in the meantime...At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the case for raising rates to less unusually low levels does not rest on wage growth or inflation returning in earnest first. Rates are too low, and capital is misallocated as a result."
2. "More than the wage data however, we’d focus on the unemployment rate. We look for a solid 240k increase in non-farm payrolls, a 2.2% increase in hourly earnings and a drop to 5.2% from 5.3% in the unemployment rate."
   
3. "Anything that gets the front end of the curve higher in the US should be negative for EUR/USD. A meander back above 1.10 is possible in the early part of the week, but we’d like to sell against 1.11 and look for a break lower in August."
   

Just to remind that previous NFP data was 223K, and forecasting for this Friday is aroud 224K for example (from 222K to 225K), so if Societe Generale is looking for 240K as anactual data for this Friday - it merans to be more bearish for EURUSD. Because in case of NPF: actual > forecast = good for currency (for US Dollar in our case). So, it means: more bearish for EURUSD with some key support levels to be broken. And Unemployment Rate is forecadting to be 5.2% from 5.3% by SG.



Thus, I think - it may be good bearish breakdown during this high impacted news event.