First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- let us recall that for EUR/USD we predicted a sideways trend with the “bulls” prevailing and a movement of the pair from support at 1.0750÷1.0800 to resistance at 1.1110, which is what actually happened. Truth be told, the pair did not quite reach the top boundary of the designated corridor, but overall we can say that our forecast was completely fulfilled;
- but the GBP/USD pair somewhat disappointed the analysts. This case was a sideways trend with support at the level of 1.5555, which the pair tried to break through during the whole of the week’s first half. On Thursday, it finally managed to do this and, as a result, fell to the support of two weeks before in the zone of 1.5470;
- the USD/JPY pair, as predicted, tried to continue its rise in the beginning of the week. However, the “bulls” got tired and the pair entered a sideways trend, moving in a very narrow corridor and relying on the support of 123.75;
- the lack of news last week affected the behaviour of the USD/CHF pair – it was unable to reach the desired height of 0.9700 and on Thursday fell to the expected level of support in the zone of 0.9520, rebounding off of which it returned to the values of the beginning of the week.
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The forecast for the coming week:
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- just by looking at the H4 graph for the EUR/USD pair, it is clear that the technical indicators will vote for the continuation of its growth. However, on D1 the picture is different – only 52% of indicators support their “younger brothers”, while 48% hold the opposite opinion. Furthermore, 85% of experts also vote for its fall, specifying the aim of this pair as the descent to at least the level of 1.0850, or even further to 1.0800. As for graphical analysis, it predicts a sideways trend in the first half of the week in the range of 1.0900÷1.1015 and, in the case that the pair breaks through the level of resistance, its movement to the height of 1.1115;
- now the GBP/USD pair. For this pair, 80% of analysts believe that a further decline and a transition to the zone of 1.5335÷1.5450 is most probable. 75% of indicators agree with this human reasoning, while graphical analysis feels that the pair will fall only to the level of 1.5400, after which it will continue growing in an ascending corridor which can be seen quite clearly on D1;
- regarding the future of the USD/JPY pair, analysts believe that it will not abandon its attempts to reach at least the height of 125.00. Both technical and graphical analysis agree with the continuation of such a general trend. Support will be in the zone of 123.65, and the next – 122.50;
- and finally the USD/CHF pair. Here 65% of experts vote in support of growth of the pair to the 0.9700 mark. Indicators also confirm the striving of the pair to finish what it was not able to the previous week. Graphical analysis on D1 draws the following picture: first a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by growth to the target height of 0.9700, and then… a collapse to the level of support at 0.9325. As for the H1 and H4 timeframes, these prophesise such a collapse, but much sooner.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
