Credit Agricole for EUR: The end of complacency - one key question is also how the Fed will respond to the intensifying uncertainty about Greece
"EUR came off at the start of the new week after the talks
between Greece and its creditors in Brussels were abandoned after only
45 minutes yesterday. Our central case is still for a compromise to be found most
likely in the form of a partial bailout extension in exchange for the
implementation of some of the reforms."
"One key question is also how the Fed will respond to the intensifying uncertainty about Greece. We suspect that while Yellen will try not to rock the boat too much, it will be hard for her to ignore the latest improvement in US data and especially various inflation gauges. Positive surprises from today's US IP could fuel more hawkish expectations some more. All that should keep USD supported broadly this week."
"Lingering Greek fears and more constructive message from the Fed could make for a less favourable backdrop for risk correlated G10 currencies. We suspect that the likes of AUD and NZD could remain vulnerable alongside EUR."
