Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (June 15 - 19, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:(CONFIDENTIAL) 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is still in bullish mode - despite the efforts of bears to pull price down. There are support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050 so a breach of those support lines would result in a new bearish outlook. There are also resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450: a breach of those resistance lines would result in confirmation of the existing bullish view. However, even if the market moves further upwards, it is more likely to weaken by the end of this month (possibly the end of this week).

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF last week was characterized by desperate struggles between bulls and bears. The bears are still strong enough to prevent the bulls from realizing their objectives and, as such, the bias for this market remains bearish. Movement below the support level at 0.9250 would result in a stronger bearish propensity - especially if price closes below the support level and continues towards the support level at 0.9200. This is because price was unable to close below the 0.9250 support level last week so movement below there would indicate a stronger bearish presence. However, any significant weakness in EURUSD (which may happen before the end of this month) would cause USDCHF to rally strongly.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable rallied 300 pips last week - rising from the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5550. Further upward movement is possible, enabling price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5700, however, a strong bearish trend is anticipated for Cable (and other GBP pairs) before the end this month - possibly before the end of this week. If started, the bearish trend could remain in force for most of July.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has already turned bearish, though the bulls are still fighting a losing battle to reverse the trend. Price tested the demand level at 122.50 and then bounced upwards. Though a movement above the supply level at 125.00 could challenge that new bearish signal, the upward bounce could also bring an opportunity to enter short at a better price. In the event of further decline, price could breach the demand levels at 122.50 and 121.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross closed at 139.00 on Friday, June 12, 2015. The outlook for the market is currently bullish, though threatened, so price needs to move upwards in order to maintain the status quo. However, a breach of the demand zone at 138.00 could result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern and, in all likelihood, this and most JPY pairs have a high probability of weakening by the end of this month – a condition expected to last for most of July.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“…The only truth is the chart. Don't ever listen to the news without looking hard and long at the chart. The chart is the truth. Nothing else is the truth.” - Scott Brown

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