Regarding the last week’s forecast, we ought to admit that the Forex market cannot succumb to panic. Let us explain: going against all logic, the analysts suddenly decided to predict growth for all four pairs last week and, of course, were punished for this:
- so, at the end of the winter we declared the striving of the EUR/USD pair to the signature value of 1.0000, and, no matter what happened, we stood our ground. And so it was enough for the analysts to change their forecast for one – only one! – week and start talking about a change in the trend to an increasing one, for the pair to immediately rush… downwards to the zone of 1.0600 – where we had expected it in the very beginning of April;
- approximately the same thing happened to GBP/USD. Truth be told, during the week the pair made two attempts to play along with the analysts and reach the height of 1.5000, but… bouncing off the plank of 1.4980, it fell by a whole 400.0 points in the end, reaching the minimum of mid-March;
- yet for USD/JPY the weekly forecast came true – the pair demonstrated “bullish” trends and striving to reach the zone of 121.50÷122.00. However, it’s “record” so far is “only” 120.730;
- with the USD/CHF pair everything happened as predicted too – after a rebound downwards the pair returned to a “bullish” trend, aiming to meet EUR and USD at the 1.0000 mark.
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Now regarding the forecasts for the coming week.
Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies collected in a table as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can draw an interim conclusion: if two weeks ago the number of analysts who did not know what to say was around 30%, last week it exceeded 40%, and now it is already more than half! How do you expect us to make predictions? In any case, we shall make an attempt. And so:
- as for the EUR/USD pair (as, indeed, for the rest of the pairs too), we can expect that it will continue to follow the “general” line and will try to break through the level of 1.0460. A ceiling at the height of 1.0720 will exert pressure on the pair from above;
- the GBP/USD pair is predicted a sideways trend under “bearish” pressure with an upper boundary of 1.4800 and a lower boundary that is… very difficult to set because the pair has left the limits of a five-year minimum. For now, we will mark it slightly lower than the level of 1.4500;
- USD/JPY – still up to the 121.50 mark, although it is not excluded that for some time the pair will be in a sideways trend;
- and finally the fourth pair of our review – USD/CHF. Regarding this pair, the forecast, as before, is similar to that of USD/JPY – up to the height of 1.0000, and maybe even a bit higher.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
