Asian Market Update: RBA cuts outlook for growth and inflation, Australia PM Abbott's leadership under threat
Economic Data
(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 45.9 V 44.4 PRIOR; 3rd month of contraction
(JP) JAPAN JAN OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.26T V $1.26T PRIOR
Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.6%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -1.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Mar S&P500 -0.1% at 2,053
Commodities/Fixed Income
Apr gold +0.3% at $1,266, Mar crude oil +1.2% at $51.07/brl
CME raises margin requirements on Coal, Crude Oil, Equity index, Metals, FX, and Nat Gas futures (http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv15-038.pdf)
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 5.4 tonnes to 773.3 tonnes; highest since Sept 25th
(JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥400B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
(AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 2.75% bonds due 2019; Avg yield: 1.9977%; Bid-to-cover: 4.58x
USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1261 v 6.1366 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Jan 22nd)
(US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Feb 4th: $4.50T v $4.50T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.5% v 9.5% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.8% v 5.8% w/w
Market Focal Points/FX
Despite the latest PBOC RRR cut, Shanghai Composite is headed for its 2nd consecutive session of above-1% declines and also its 2nd consecutive week of net losses, testing below the 2-week low of 3,100. The focus is shifting from the intentions of the policy easing to next week's expected peak in mainland IPO filings. In fact, expectations for lending still show robust credit pipeline - according to CICC, Jan New Yuan Loans could reach as high as CNY1.6T v CNY697.3B in Dec, accompanying outsized activity going into the Lunar New Year. Meanwhile, a Xinhua report citing a PBoC official indicated this week's RRR cut should not be interpreted as the start of strong stimulus or a policy shift.
USD majors are contained to narrow ranges, as is typically the case going into the non-farm payrolls report in the US on Friday. AUD/USD saw the most volatility with about a 60pip jump to $0.7860 following the release of Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly policy statement. Although RBA cut its projections for 2015 GDP to 2.25-3.25% v 2.5-3.5% prior and headline inflation to 2-3% v 2.5-3.5% prior, traders saw little indication of a strong easing bias beyond this week's surprise 25bp rate cut to 2.25%. Most of the statement's language was also perceived as boilerplate, reiterating growth would be below trend for longer, non-mining activity remains subdued, and housing market bears watching. Moreover, RBA saw oil price decline subtracting 0.5 ppt in Q1 but also forecasting subsequent improvement in consumption. ANZ economists judged the quarterly statement to inflation and growth as less severe than feared, CBA report was still in favor of another 25bp move in May, while Morgan Stanley saw a more aggressive easing campaign taking OCR to 1.75% in 3 months. Separately in Australia, ruling party MP Luke Simpkins waged a "spill motion" challenging PM Abbott as the leader of the party, with potential vote of confidence coming as early as next week.
In Japan, sources indicated the BOJ reportedly sees no need for easing action as long as the fall in core CPI is driven by falling oil prices, but also worries core CPI could turn negative if oil prices fell below $40/brl. BOJ Dep Gov Iwata spoke later in the session, reiterating board members' optimistic position that QE is having intended effects, inflation expectations are rising, and change in "deflationary mindset" is progressing. Ahead of next week's G20 meeting, Fin Min Aso remarked he would express that Japan will continue to tackle fiscal consolidation, but that overall economy is improving. USD/JPY volatility has been remarkably low for over 2 weeks, with the pair coiling within the 117-119 range.
Equities
US markets:
UBNT: Reports Q2 $0.53 v $0.48e, R$153.1M v $153Me; +9.8% afterhours
TWTR: Reports Q4 $0.12 v $0.06e, R$479M v $455Me; Confirms relationship with Google for real time search [*Note: 02/04: Twitter said to have reached deal with Google for tweets to be shown in search results - financial press] - conf call comments; +9.1% afterhours
LNKD: Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.53e, R$643M v $619Me; +7.7% afterhours
BWLD: Reports Q4 $1.07 v $1.09e, R$408.9M v $405Me; +5.7% afterhours
FTR: To acquire Verizon's Wireline Operations in California, Florida and Texas for $10.5B; AMT to acquire rights to towers for $5.1B; +4.9% afterhours
ATHN: Reports Q4 $0.58 v $0.39e, R$213.2M v $207Me; +2.0% afterhours
MCK: Reports Q3 $2.89 v $2.62e, R$47B v $44.6Be; +1.4% afterhours
VZ: Announces $5B buyback (2.5% of market cap); +1.1% afterhours
SRCL: Cuts FY15 $4.63-4.69 v $4.74e, R$2.8-2.85B v $2.85Be (prior guided $4.69-4.75, R$2.82-2.87B) - conf call comments; -0.7% afterhours
OUTR: Reports Q4 $2.35 v $2.33e, R$601M v $601Me; Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.30/shr, implied yield 2.0%; Announces additional $250M share repurchase authorization (21.6% of market cap); -0.9% afterhours
FLT: Reports Q4 $1.39 v $1.35e, R$255.5M v $321Me; -1.5% afterhours
SYMC: Reports Q3 $0.53 v $0.49e, R$1.64B v $1.67Be; -1.8% afterhours
VRSN: Reports Q4 $0.70 v $0.71e, R$255.9M v $256Me; -2.6% afterhours
LGF: Reports Q3 $0.79(adj) v $0.65e, R$751M v $767Me; -2.7% afterhours
NUAN: Reports Q1 $0.25 v $0.22e, R$489.0M v $486Me; -3.4% afterhours
ATVI: Reports Q4 $0.94 v $0.88e, R$2.21B v $2.25Be; approves $750M buyback program (over 2 years, 4.8% of market cap); intends to pay down $250M in debt; -7.9% afterhours
EXPE: Reports Q4 $0.86 v $1.00e, R$1.36B v $1.37Be; -8.0% afterhours
BRS: Reports Q3 $0.70 v $1.34e (unclear if comp, 2 ests.), R$460.1M v $452Me; -8.2% afterhours
DV: Reports Q2 $0.75 v $0.78e, R$484.9M v $487Me; -9.6% afterhours
YELP: Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.07e, R$109.9M v $108Me; -10.4% afterhours
TPX: Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.84e, R$745.5M v $742Me; -10.5% afterhours
GPRO: Reports Q4 $0.99 v $0.69e, R$633.9M v $572Me; -15.3% afterhours
P: Reports Q4 $0.18 v $0.19e, R$268M v $277Me; -19.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
Consumer Discretionary: Japan Tobacco 2914 +1.1% (FY14 results)
Financials: OzForex Group OFX.AU -4.3% (CEO to step down); Haitong Securities 6837.HK +0.9% (Jan Op result); Hutchison Whampoa 13.HK +1.1% (in talks to sell stake in port unit)
Energy: Oil Search Ltd OSH.AU +1.5% (provides PNG LNG project update)
Industrials: Suzuki Motor Corp 7269 -6.3% (9-month results); Virgin Australia VAH.AU +2.3% (Q2 results); Great Wall Motor 601633.CN +6.7% (Jan sales result); Geely Automobile Holdings 175.HK +1.2% (Jan sales result); Guangzhou Automobile Group 2238.HK -0.6% (Jan sales result)
Technology: Nikon Corp 7731.JP -7.1% (9-month results); Genetic Technologies GTG.AU +29.3% (JPMorgan initiates stake)
