The single currency tumbled at market opening on Monday amid rising political tensions in Germany. The euro fell 0.60% against the US dollar and slid as low as 1...
Next week’s calendar brims with sentiment data releases. The Conference Board and the University of Michigan in the US, the IFO Business Climate indicator in Germany and, of course, preliminary PMI releases worldwide will shed light on the prospects of major economies...
Recent changes in Saudi Arabia have not caused big market moves. Even so, Saudi politics could impact the rest of the world in one of three ways, explains Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan. Saudi Arabia can have a global impact through the oil market...
I remain bearish on commodities: improving demand will not yet cover a supply glut. Oil is in a loop where higher prices trigger higher production that sends prices swiftly lower. CAD economic outlook remains highly influenced by oil prices – as they decline, USD/CAD has room to appreciate...
Rising growth, increasing inflation and lower unemployment are building a groundswell for the European Central Bank to tighten the euro. Last month the ECB said it will cut quantitative easing from €60 billion per month to €30 billion, beginning in January, and wind down to nil by September 2018...
The House of Representatives passed a bill for the largest overhaul of the US tax system in 31 years. The text provides for reducing the corporate tax to its lowest level since 1939 and to reduce the personal tax in 2018...
$8000 before end of the week? (By Yann Quelenn) • Bitcoin is back to recent its highest levels after a profit-taking period. The technical structure shows a tremendous positive short-term...
UK inflation has come in at a strong 3% per annum, which is weighing on the pound, because an interest rate hike in 2018 looks likely. The pound is trading sideways at 1.30-1.32 USD. Why is the Bank of England so cautious about raising rates...
Inflation is back, especially in the US, where the US Price Producer Index has broken its downtrend of nearly a decade. In the next few months, this will explode volatility and the bond-market bubble, when investors start unwinding their bonds – along with the US Federal Reserve doing the same...
Today’s publication of the US Consumer Price Index might have a profound effect. It will force investors to choose whether a drop in asset prices is a buying opportunity or a sell signal. Stocks continued to retreat...
China’s economy has showed a slight deceleration, but nothing dramatic. Still, to keep capital from flowing elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China might tighten interest rates in mid-2018. Chinese October retail sales increased 10.0% annually, below expectations of 10.5%. Fixed investment rose 7...
While Germany’s Q3 GDP increase of 0.8% over Q2 beat expectations by 0.2% bumped the euro up towards 1.17 USD per EUR, this has come at a cost. European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio congratulated himself on Monday, stating that the ECB monetary policy was highly successful...
Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, is set to speak today in Zurich. Each one of its intervention are well regarded by financial markets. Indeed, it is still very interesting to know how he will address the lack of inflation in one decade...
November looks set to be a month of consolidation for currency markets given there are no major central bank meetings scheduled. That said, some interesting activity data is due to be released in the coming week...
One year after US President Trump's victory, it is too early to see the Trump effect in economic numbers. Politicians are not that important in the short term. Economies generally react to policy changes with a long lag. The Trump effect will only show up in future numbers...
Risk appetite in Asia remains weak with steady selling in EM FX and stocks. No surprisingly, US President Trump and President Xi Jinping attendance at the Apec summit has failed to generate positive sentiment...
The Brazilian real came under renewed pressures starting mid-October as US yields initiated a much-awaited recovery. The entire EM complex suffered as the entire US yield curve shifted to the upside...
Banxico will likely keep its interest rates steady tonight at 7%. There are many reasons for that. First of all, inflation expectations are now getting lower as the central bank certainly raised too strongly the overnight rate by anticipating a stronger Fed tightening rate path...
