As Canada scrambles to reach closure on the North American Free Trade Agreement, CAN is wobbling. It gained (USD/CAD: -0.77% week-to-date), but now the trend is reversing. USD/CAD is bouncing off 1.2907 (29 August low) and expected to hit 1.3010...
The cable surged on Wednesday as it added 1.53% to $1.3029 after EU negotiator Michel Barnier said the EU would offer the UK a unique deal. The announcement made investors more than happy as it means that the UK would get at least a deal...
As the gongs sounded of a US-Mexico trade deal, broad USD selling slowed while Mexican peso rose, yet MXN was unable to hold high ground. While the downside risk of a failed agreement has decreased, confusion has increased...
The US dollar was better bid against most of its peers on Wednesday morning as global stocks treaded water. The dollar index edged up 0.05% to 94.78 as the single currency tumbled on the 1.17 resistance, while the Australian dollar fell the most within the G10 complex, down 0.40% on the session...
Two concerns pose downside risk to the optimistic outlook of the US Federal Reserve Bank. First is trade tension. America imposed tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese imports and China quickly retaliated. Yet a breakthrough in NAFTA negotiation between Mexico and the US seems likely...
Japanese inflation numbers continue to disappoint, rendering the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target by 2021 less likely. July’s nominal consumer prices increased by 0.90% (prior: 0...
Make no mistake: the Trump Administration is in crisis. Convictions of two Trump deputies and an indictment of campaign finance violations are real problems that carry jail terms. This is not hype, Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is building a legal sledgehammer...
Crude oil prices are bouncing from recent low, benefitting from a weakening dollar and from China’s threatened 25% duties on US gasoline, diesel and other refined products...
The US Federal Reserve Bank yesterday released minutes of its August monetary policy meeting: a 0.25% interest rate hike is signalled for September. Markets have reacted with confusion. Was the tone hawkish or dovish...
Mexico’s new President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), has restarted talks with the USA on the North American Free Trade Agreement. US and Mexican officials have particularly covered how much North American content should be included in cars...
The Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed in its August Meeting Minutes that it is not expecting to raise its Official Cash Rate, given at 1.50% since 8 February 2016. The RBA sees improvement in unemployment, income growth and inflation. Inflation and unemployment forecasts are estimated at 2...
Risk in trading continued to push asset higher in low liquidity. Heck even commodities and bitcoin has taken a slightly bullish tone...
After a selloff from July to mid-August, the cannabis industry is facing risk-off sentiment. The industry benchmark, the North American Marijuana Index, fell as much as -10.16% during that time. But fundamentals remain intact...
Over the last days, the Swiss franc made a solid comeback in the wake of worsening crisis in Turkey and mounting worries of emerging market contagion...
Despite mounting geopolitical risks, gold has done the opposite of what would have been expected and slumped, falling 5% from USD 1,228 to USD 1,162 per ounce during the Turkish currency crisis. Could it have been Turkish President Erdogan’s plea to his own people...
Trading sideways against the greenback since June in the 1.16 range, EUR fell most during last week’s Turkish lira collapse. Despite growth and improving sentiment indicators, the single currency continues to weaken against the USD while USD/TRY trend goes in the opposite direction...
American economic developments are as critical as US-Turkey relations. Today’s report on retail sales is expected to show a 0.4% monthly rise in July. Consumer fundamentals continue to improve, while businesses are driving on domestic demand...
UK unemployment should fall further toward 4% (expect 4.1%). Wage growth should stagnate at 2.7%. Rising inflation should give the Bank of England confidence to raise rates in August. However, European growth concerns and Brexit uncertainty should keep the BoE sidelined for the rest of the year...
As emerging-market currencies quake, now could be an opportunity to bargain hunt. Turkey has bounced back: the market has lost its appetite for pushing TRY further, as USD/TRY 1 month at-the-money volatility stands at a whopping 60...
