A rebound in US employment figures, ongoing sanctions in Iran, Venezuela and now war escalation in Libya without mentioning OPEC’s production cut and improving Sino-American trade discussions remain the major factors for current lift in oil prices...
At the start of the trading week, markets are lacking new drivers that could provide meaningful direction. Last week, US labor market data failed to provide any clarity. US NPF recovered to 196k from ultra weak 20k prior read while wage growth decelerated to 3.2% from 3.4...
It seems that the Japanese yen (unlike the greenback) can’t get rid of poor economic data. Poor February exports figures of -1.20% (prior: -8.40%) in negative territory for the third consecutive time as well as low February wage earnings, down 0.80% following January revised -0...
Financial markets are rather quiet this morning. The FX market remains under the influence of both Sino-American trade talks and Brexit while the drop in German February manufacturing orders has also a significant impact on the European stock market...
The Australian dollar is changing course of action as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and his delegation is resuming trade talks in Washington in order to agree on an enforcement mechanism. Sticking points remain on topics such as intellectual property and trade surplus reduction...
Brexit continues to drag on with investors having no idea what the outcome might be. UK parliament is stuck in gridlock and the EU seem unwilling to help. As we have long predicted, Brexit visibility was close to zero and probability pricing on outcomes was misleading...
Concerns about global economic health, Brexit stalemate and Sino-American trade tensions continue to generate great demand for the franc despite economic releases pointing towards an economic slowdown...
The week started off on a bad foot in the US, at least from an economic standpoint. February retails came in well below estimate and heightened concerns about a severe economic slowdown...
The Italian crisis saga is not over. The economy has consistently grown at a slower pace than the euro zone due to structural inefficiencies while heavy pressures induced by the European Commission with regard to the budget deficit target is expected to resume in 2H 2019...
1st April and the UK remains part of the EU. I guess the joke is on us. However, the sterling is no longer getting the “kick the can” bounce...
A US-China trade deal is close. Adherence to the spirit of the deal will be difficult; the countries have completely different economic systems that will not converge by ending punitive tariffs and buying more planes. Most appreciation of CNY has already occurred...
It has been a busy week in the House of Commons as the deadline set by the EU for the UK’s exit from the EU is approaching at lightning speed. UK lawmakers will be voting on Theresa May’s Brexit plan for the third time this year, on January 15th and on March 12th...
Many of us are watching markets and Brexit chaos wondering why risk premia is not fully priced. Not only does uncertainty over EU-UK relationship threaten 20% of the global economy but economic data continued to indicated that the global decelerations is lasting longer than expected...
Yesterday evening was a total disaster in the House of Commons. After hours of discussion, MPs passed on all eights Brexit alternatives put to vote. As expected the “no deal” plan B didn’t receive much love (160 for and 400 against), just as the “revocation to avoid no deal” (184 versus 293...
News on the Forex Factory is a lot. Sometimes we see red news, but the impact is not as large as any. Sometimes see the orange news, but the big effect is on the market...
It is going to be long day for UK lawmakers, as the Commons will start voting on alternatives on Wednesday. This morning, each MP will have to choose which alternatives he/she wants to back. Afterwards, the alternative with the highest support will win...
A quiet Asian session as equity markets staged a mild recovery ahead of Brexit uncertainty. The increased probability of a soft or no Brexit has encouraged investors. However, this one will clearly go down to the wire...
To watchers of the US Federal Reserve, the biggest surprise lately was an announcement to end balance sheet reduction in September. This should keep assets near USD3.5 trillion, significantly higher than previously indicated...
After the UK Parliament took control of Brexit on Monday, the pound sterling stabilised at around USD 1.32, showing that all options remain on the table...
