ABN Amro sees slower British growth The economists at ABN Amro see 2016 relatively unchanged at 1.5% compared to 1.6 but a prolonged period of uncertainty will hurt 2017 growth badly. They now forecast growth at 0.5% next year compared to 2.5% previously...
The gameplan from Morgan Stanley From MS: We stick to our trading strategy of using the current rebound to sell current account deficit and liability burdened currencies against the JPY, USD and the EUR. Our EUR constructive stance may surprise as we have been known for long as EUR bears...
Credit Agricole on what's next Markets are stabilising after the brutal (and according to some market observers excessive) moves in the immediate aftermath of Brexit...
European stock market close 29 June 2016 FTSE +3.2% Cac +2.4% Dax +1.7% Ibex +3.3...
Another runner make an official entrance Liam Fox is the former Secretary of Defence and he's just announced he'll be running for the top job. Along with Stephen Crabb, they are the only people to have officially stated their intention to run...
Weekly energy supply data from the EIA Prior was -917K Gasoline inventories +1367K vs -300K exp Distillates -1801K vs +625K exp Refinery utilization +1.7% vs +0.5% exp...
AUD/USD uptrend continues The Australian dollar is taking advantage of the continues improvement in risk sentiment. AUD/USD edged through Monday's high of 0.7451 before slipping back. The pair is clearly in a consolidation phase after a 350 pip post-Brexit fall...
Stocks back into positive territory for the year The second day of post-Brexit gains is underway in the US stock market. The jump at the open broke the 50% retracement of the 120 point Brexit swoon. The index is currently up 18 points to 2054. The 61.8% retracement is a key level to watch at 2066...
May 2016 US personal income and spending data report 29 June 2016 Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.5% Personal spending 0.4% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 1.0%. Revised to 1.1% Real personal spending 0.3% vs 0.6% prior. Revised to 0...
June 2016 German HICP and CPI flash report 29 June 2016 Prior 0.0% 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.4% CPI 0.3% vs 0.3% exp y/y. Prior 0.1% 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3...
Australians go to the polls on July 2nd, and for a change, this could be a market moving event...
The team at Nordea give it a 30% chance and explain why: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: In Q4 2016, the new prime minister triggers Article 50 of the EU Treaty by notifying the EU that the UK intends to leave. That opens a two-year window for negotiating a withdrawal agreement...
The US releases its final GDP for Q1 2016. A small upgrade is expected. The actual results is 1.1%, slightly better than 0.8% expected. Within the components, we do have a miss on personal consumption, with a downgrade to 1.5%. This is not good news. Sales did beat with 1.3% against 1.2% expected...
The game of 'who blinks first' is on Just in case you're unsure what article 50 is, it's the formal notice that a country wants to leave. "Article 501. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. 2...
June 2016 German HICP and CPI flash report 29 June 2016 Prior 0.0% 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.4% CPI 0.3% vs 0.3% exp y/y. Prior 0.1% 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3...
Stephen Crabb has thrown his hat into the leadership ring and is making his case Brexit result was clear, UK will leave the EU Article 50 discussion must happen after uniting the party and the country My goal is to create stability (when asked about a possible General election) Control in immigra...
US ratings agency out with a client note 29 June 2016 UK to face large investment shock post-Brexit 2017 & 2018 GDP to fall to around 1% uncertainty to prompt firms to delay investment, hiring decisions Say Fitch...
A few items to keep an eye to gauge the reaction to Brexit I won't labour the point that we face many months of uncertainty now the vote is cast but even with that uncertainty, we can still identify the clues that will tell us how to trade it...
June 2016 Eurozone economic sentiment and final consumer confidence report 29 June 2016 Prior 104.7 Business climate 0.22 vs 0.26 exp. Prior 0.26 Industrial sentiment -2.8 vs -3.4 exp. Prior -3.6 Services sentiment 10.8 vs 11.0 exp. Prio r11.3...
UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit data Prior 66,250. Revised to 66,205 Mortgage lending 2.842bn vs 2.200bn exp. Prior 0.281bn. Revised to 0.112bn BOE consumer credit 1.503bn vs 1.400bn exp. Prior 1.287bn. Revised to 1.294bn credit card lending 418m vs 333m prior. Revised to 326m...
