The most liquid oil futures contracts closed this Monday (13), up more than 1%, recovering from part of the drop seen last week, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) raised its forecast increase in global demand this year and help dispel fears about the weakening of the global economy.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), WTI oil for December closed up 1.41% (US$1.09), at US$78.26 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for January, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), rose 1.33% (US$1.09), to US$82.52 a barrel.
This Monday, OPEC raised its forecast for an increase in global oil demand in 2023 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 2.5 million bpd, and left its forecast for 2024
unchanged. bpd its forecast for the increase in oil supply between countries outside the group in 2023, to 1.8 million bpd.
For Oanda analyst Craig Erlam, this Monday's report indicated that the slowing Chinese economy may not weigh that much on demand for the commodity, and “the question now is whether Russia and Saudi Arabia, members of OPEC+, will retreat with production cuts beyond December”, which would keep supply tight and prices high.
According to Fawad Razaqzada, from City Index, the fall in oil prices tends to be limited this year. “Given that oil prices have weakened in recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to continue their voluntary supply cuts next year,” he explains, and argues that the drop in the number of active oil exploration platforms in the USA it should also reduce the supply of the commodity among countries that are not members of OPEC, favoring higher prices.
