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My Signal
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/2148295?source=Site+Signals+From+Author
First of All,
Thank you for viewing my profile.
I only trade AUD AND NZD-related pairs and some major fundamentals events. I closely monitor the CHINESE STOCK MARKET, NEWZEALAND, AND AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY to do my analysis.
After years (from 2020) of forex trading, I've found, that it's best to trade with 1 or 2 currency pairs. Narrow focus brings the best result in the forex market.
I try to post and update my trade ideas every week. Follow me, if you like my analysis.
I use both fundamental and technical analysis to generate trade ideas. I don't feel comfortable placing orders based on just some random indicators. I look for strong fundamental reasons, and these indicators help me to achieve a great risk-to-reward ratio.
May we all gain some Pips. Happy trading...
CONTACT INFO:
Email: me908fardun@gmail.com
What's app: +8801931939900
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/2148295?source=Site+Signals+From+Author
First of All,
Thank you for viewing my profile.
I only trade AUD AND NZD-related pairs and some major fundamentals events. I closely monitor the CHINESE STOCK MARKET, NEWZEALAND, AND AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY to do my analysis.
After years (from 2020) of forex trading, I've found, that it's best to trade with 1 or 2 currency pairs. Narrow focus brings the best result in the forex market.
I try to post and update my trade ideas every week. Follow me, if you like my analysis.
I use both fundamental and technical analysis to generate trade ideas. I don't feel comfortable placing orders based on just some random indicators. I look for strong fundamental reasons, and these indicators help me to achieve a great risk-to-reward ratio.
May we all gain some Pips. Happy trading...
CONTACT INFO:
Email: me908fardun@gmail.com
What's app: +8801931939900
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
NZD/USD Price Analysis: Discovers support near 0.6250 ahead of FOMC minutes
NZD/USD recovers from 0.6250 as the US Dollar turns sideways ahead of FOMC minutes.
The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Fed in March 2024 has dropped slightly.
NZD/USD manages to sustain inside the Rising Channel chart pattern.
The NZD/USD pair has rebounded after discovering buying support near 0.6250 on Wednesday. The Kiwi asset finds cushion as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling for a direction ahead of the release of the Manufacturing PMI for December to be reported by the United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM) at 15:00 GMT and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
S&P500 futures remains subdued in the Asian session, portraying caution among market participants ahead of crucial US economic events. The USD Index consolidates around 102.20 after a sharp recovery as investors reconsider about risk sentiment.
Bets supporting an interest rate cut by 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March 2024 have dropped. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in March has come down to 67% from 72% projected on Tuesday.
NZD/USD trades in a Rising Channel chart pattern on a four-hour scale in which each pullback is considered as a selling opportunity by the market participants. The Kiwi asset slips below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates that the near-term upside bias has dampened for now. The broader appeal will remain bullish until the asset sustains in the upward-sloping channel.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. Fresh recovery would appear when the momentum oscillator will deliver a range shift move.
Investors should capitalize a mean-reversion move to near the lower portion of the aforementioned chart pattern, which is around 0.6235. This would result in a recovery move towards 13 December 2023 high at 0.6287, followed by January 2 high at 0.6335.
In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below December 18 low near 0.6200 would expose the asset to 12 December 2023 high at 0.6170 and 8 December 2023 low near 0.6100.
NZD/USD recovers from 0.6250 as the US Dollar turns sideways ahead of FOMC minutes.
The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Fed in March 2024 has dropped slightly.
NZD/USD manages to sustain inside the Rising Channel chart pattern.
The NZD/USD pair has rebounded after discovering buying support near 0.6250 on Wednesday. The Kiwi asset finds cushion as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling for a direction ahead of the release of the Manufacturing PMI for December to be reported by the United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM) at 15:00 GMT and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
S&P500 futures remains subdued in the Asian session, portraying caution among market participants ahead of crucial US economic events. The USD Index consolidates around 102.20 after a sharp recovery as investors reconsider about risk sentiment.
Bets supporting an interest rate cut by 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March 2024 have dropped. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in March has come down to 67% from 72% projected on Tuesday.
NZD/USD trades in a Rising Channel chart pattern on a four-hour scale in which each pullback is considered as a selling opportunity by the market participants. The Kiwi asset slips below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates that the near-term upside bias has dampened for now. The broader appeal will remain bullish until the asset sustains in the upward-sloping channel.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. Fresh recovery would appear when the momentum oscillator will deliver a range shift move.
Investors should capitalize a mean-reversion move to near the lower portion of the aforementioned chart pattern, which is around 0.6235. This would result in a recovery move towards 13 December 2023 high at 0.6287, followed by January 2 high at 0.6335.
In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below December 18 low near 0.6200 would expose the asset to 12 December 2023 high at 0.6170 and 8 December 2023 low near 0.6100.
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
Goldman forecasts GBP/USD to 1.35 in 2024
Head of globa FX at Goldman Sachs forecasts GBP/USD to 1.35 next year, citing correlation with equities and diminishing fears of global recession.
GBP has a “reliably positive relationship with higher equity prices”
“Sterling’s recent rise is of course partly about the broader dollar weakness, but since early November the pound has also strengthened on a trade-weighted basis because it tends to do especially well in an environment of moderating interest rate volatility and buoyant equity prices."
“That has been the backdrop since early November and we expect more of that in the year ahead. That is why we think sterling is one of the currencies that have more room to appreciate as the markets embrace a ‘soft landing’ view.”
“looming elections have the potential to both incentivise additional fiscal support and bring about somewhat reduced trade frictions with the EU, both of which should help support domestic growth, help avoid recessionary risks and boost the pound.”
Head of globa FX at Goldman Sachs forecasts GBP/USD to 1.35 next year, citing correlation with equities and diminishing fears of global recession.
GBP has a “reliably positive relationship with higher equity prices”
“Sterling’s recent rise is of course partly about the broader dollar weakness, but since early November the pound has also strengthened on a trade-weighted basis because it tends to do especially well in an environment of moderating interest rate volatility and buoyant equity prices."
“That has been the backdrop since early November and we expect more of that in the year ahead. That is why we think sterling is one of the currencies that have more room to appreciate as the markets embrace a ‘soft landing’ view.”
“looming elections have the potential to both incentivise additional fiscal support and bring about somewhat reduced trade frictions with the EU, both of which should help support domestic growth, help avoid recessionary risks and boost the pound.”
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
Interest rate cuts in 2024, what's already priced in ?
The last two months of the year have featured some aggressive moves by traders in pricing in rate cuts for major central banks going into next year. The narrative is one that says traders are convinced by the disinflation trend and that policymakers can start to lower rates as the battle is already won.
Whether or not that will be the case remains to be seen but markets are led by the data and so far, there is not much reason to turn the other cheek. So, what's priced in now for major central banks that are leaning towards interest rate cuts next year?
Federal Reserve: -156 bps (first -25 bps in March)
European Central Bank: -161 bps (first -25 bps in April)
Bank of England: -141 bps (first -25 bps in May)
Swiss National Bank: -86 bps (first -25 bps in June)
Bank of Canada: -120 bps (first -25 bps in April)
Reserve Bank of Australia: -53 bps (first -25 bps in June)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: -93 bps (first -25 bps in May)
That is some rather heavy posturing, especially when it comes to the Fed, ECB, and BOE in particular.
It is important to understand what is priced in as per the above as that sets out the market expectations at the moment going into next year. And therein lies the risk of any potential correction/retracement in pricing if inflation data does not corroborate with what traders are seeing in the first few months of 2024.
The last two months of the year have featured some aggressive moves by traders in pricing in rate cuts for major central banks going into next year. The narrative is one that says traders are convinced by the disinflation trend and that policymakers can start to lower rates as the battle is already won.
Whether or not that will be the case remains to be seen but markets are led by the data and so far, there is not much reason to turn the other cheek. So, what's priced in now for major central banks that are leaning towards interest rate cuts next year?
Federal Reserve: -156 bps (first -25 bps in March)
European Central Bank: -161 bps (first -25 bps in April)
Bank of England: -141 bps (first -25 bps in May)
Swiss National Bank: -86 bps (first -25 bps in June)
Bank of Canada: -120 bps (first -25 bps in April)
Reserve Bank of Australia: -53 bps (first -25 bps in June)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: -93 bps (first -25 bps in May)
That is some rather heavy posturing, especially when it comes to the Fed, ECB, and BOE in particular.
It is important to understand what is priced in as per the above as that sets out the market expectations at the moment going into next year. And therein lies the risk of any potential correction/retracement in pricing if inflation data does not corroborate with what traders are seeing in the first few months of 2024.
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
USDCAD The Canadian Dollar has had a solid week. Economists at Scotiabank analyze USD/CAD outlook.
Short-term resistance is 1.3315/1.3320
Minor new lows for USD/CAD keep the short and longer run technical outlook bearish.
Spot is heading for a close below weekly trend support at 1.3335, below the 76.4% Fibonacci support of the July – November decline at 1.3283 and might be able to close out the week below the 100-week MA (a decent bellwether for the broader trend) at 1.3281 for the first time since last June.
There is no major support for the USD (aside from some congestion in the 1.3140/1.3170 area) ahead of a return to 1.3093.
Short-term resistance is 1.3315/1.3320 and 1.3360/1.3370.
Short-term resistance is 1.3315/1.3320
Minor new lows for USD/CAD keep the short and longer run technical outlook bearish.
Spot is heading for a close below weekly trend support at 1.3335, below the 76.4% Fibonacci support of the July – November decline at 1.3283 and might be able to close out the week below the 100-week MA (a decent bellwether for the broader trend) at 1.3281 for the first time since last June.
There is no major support for the USD (aside from some congestion in the 1.3140/1.3170 area) ahead of a return to 1.3093.
Short-term resistance is 1.3315/1.3320 and 1.3360/1.3370.
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
Added topic Risk to reward ratio?
Hello experienced trader, What is the risk to reward ratio you look for during developing a new technical strategy?
10
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
Chart Art: Reversal Pattern Forming on CAD/JPY
The yen has been in selloff mode ever since the BOJ renewed its dovish stance.
Can CAD/JPY keep up its climb from here?
Here’s what I’m seeing on the 1-hour frame:
Yen pairs popped higher earlier this week when the BOJ refrained from adjusting its current policy and forward guidance.
On the flip side, the Loonie managed to rake in some gains after Canada’s inflation reports all came in stronger than expected. Headline CPI rose another 0.1% month-over-month instead of posting the projected 0.1% dip while the median CPI held steady at 3.4% year-over-year.
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the British pound and the Canadian dollar, then it’s time to do some work by checking out the forex calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
CAD/JPY was able to climb back to the resistance around the 108.00 major psychological mark to complete a double bottom pattern. Watch out for a rally that’s the same height as the formation or roughly 350 pips if the pair breaks above the neckline and R1 (107.92).
Technical indicators are looking mixed for now, as Stochastic is pointing to seller exhaustion and a possible pickup in bullish pressure. However, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to indicate selling momentum.
If resistance holds, CAD/JPY might still dip to nearby support zones at the pivot point level (106.32) or S1 (104.61) at the bottoms.
Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to suggest weakening bearish vibes and a potential bullish crossover that could attract more Loonie bulls.
The yen has been in selloff mode ever since the BOJ renewed its dovish stance.
Can CAD/JPY keep up its climb from here?
Here’s what I’m seeing on the 1-hour frame:
Yen pairs popped higher earlier this week when the BOJ refrained from adjusting its current policy and forward guidance.
On the flip side, the Loonie managed to rake in some gains after Canada’s inflation reports all came in stronger than expected. Headline CPI rose another 0.1% month-over-month instead of posting the projected 0.1% dip while the median CPI held steady at 3.4% year-over-year.
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the British pound and the Canadian dollar, then it’s time to do some work by checking out the forex calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
CAD/JPY was able to climb back to the resistance around the 108.00 major psychological mark to complete a double bottom pattern. Watch out for a rally that’s the same height as the formation or roughly 350 pips if the pair breaks above the neckline and R1 (107.92).
Technical indicators are looking mixed for now, as Stochastic is pointing to seller exhaustion and a possible pickup in bullish pressure. However, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to indicate selling momentum.
If resistance holds, CAD/JPY might still dip to nearby support zones at the pivot point level (106.32) or S1 (104.61) at the bottoms.
Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to suggest weakening bearish vibes and a potential bullish crossover that could attract more Loonie bulls.
· 1
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
EUR/USD rises toward 1.1000 after mixed US data
EUR/USD gained traction and advanced toward 1.1000 in the early American session on Thursday. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q3 annualized GDP growth lower to 4.9% from 5.2%, causing the US Dollar to come under selling pressure.
EUR/USD gained traction and advanced toward 1.1000 in the early American session on Thursday. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q3 annualized GDP growth lower to 4.9% from 5.2%, causing the US Dollar to come under selling pressure.
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
Chart Art: USD/CAD Downside Range Break
The greenback is on the move thanks to the Federal Reserve, creating textbook technical setups across the major USD pairs.
With USD volatility likely to stay up for a minute, USD/CAD will be a pair to watch with clean technical setups potentially in play to attract orders this upcoming session.
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the U.S. dollar and the Loonie then it’s time to do some work by checking out the forex calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
If you have done your fundies homework and got your biases and volatility expectations, then it’s time to move to the charts!
On the one hour chart above, we can see USD/CAD was stuck in a range for most of December, bouncing back and forth roughly between 1.3550 – 1.3600. This range was actually below its daily average true range of around 67 pips, signaling that traders were waiting on the sidelines for a major catalyst to pick up sentiment and volatility.
Well, that day came with the final FOMC statement sparking a USD selloff across the board, which broke the consolidation in USD/CAD. USD/CAD dropped to the previous swing low around the 1.3500 major psychological handle, where it seems to be stabilizing for now.
Where the pair goes to next will likely depend on how the Asia and European markets price in the FOMC news and upcoming top tier U.S. events, but if you’ve done your homework on the pair and you’re a bear, arguably the best setup to watch with solid R:R potential is a bounce back to the range. If resistance and bearish reversal patterns form there with bearish fundamentals, the odds are pretty good of drawing in sellers.
If so, and sellers take control, a move below the 1.3500 major psychological handle could be in the cards, potentially as low as the 1.3440 – 1.3460 area before profit taking buyers step back in.
If you expect upcoming U.S. data to be bullish for USD/CAD, then watching the current levels for sustained support and bullish reversal patterns should head to the top of the watchlist, as buyers could jump in and take back control if U.S. data does surprise to the upside to draw in fundamental buyers.
The previous broken range would likely be where sellers may step back in to take profit for this scenario, but again, it’s likely up to the fundies on how high a bullish bounce could go.
The greenback is on the move thanks to the Federal Reserve, creating textbook technical setups across the major USD pairs.
With USD volatility likely to stay up for a minute, USD/CAD will be a pair to watch with clean technical setups potentially in play to attract orders this upcoming session.
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the U.S. dollar and the Loonie then it’s time to do some work by checking out the forex calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
If you have done your fundies homework and got your biases and volatility expectations, then it’s time to move to the charts!
On the one hour chart above, we can see USD/CAD was stuck in a range for most of December, bouncing back and forth roughly between 1.3550 – 1.3600. This range was actually below its daily average true range of around 67 pips, signaling that traders were waiting on the sidelines for a major catalyst to pick up sentiment and volatility.
Well, that day came with the final FOMC statement sparking a USD selloff across the board, which broke the consolidation in USD/CAD. USD/CAD dropped to the previous swing low around the 1.3500 major psychological handle, where it seems to be stabilizing for now.
Where the pair goes to next will likely depend on how the Asia and European markets price in the FOMC news and upcoming top tier U.S. events, but if you’ve done your homework on the pair and you’re a bear, arguably the best setup to watch with solid R:R potential is a bounce back to the range. If resistance and bearish reversal patterns form there with bearish fundamentals, the odds are pretty good of drawing in sellers.
If so, and sellers take control, a move below the 1.3500 major psychological handle could be in the cards, potentially as low as the 1.3440 – 1.3460 area before profit taking buyers step back in.
If you expect upcoming U.S. data to be bullish for USD/CAD, then watching the current levels for sustained support and bullish reversal patterns should head to the top of the watchlist, as buyers could jump in and take back control if U.S. data does surprise to the upside to draw in fundamental buyers.
The previous broken range would likely be where sellers may step back in to take profit for this scenario, but again, it’s likely up to the fundies on how high a bullish bounce could go.
· 1
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
AUD/USD extends Fed-inspired rally above 0.6700 after Aussie jobs data
AUD/USD is extending its upsurge above 0.6700 on Thursday, delivering its strongest performance in four months, despite mixed Australian jobs data. The pair continues to gainand amid an ongoing US Dollar decline, following a dovish Fed pause.
AUD/USD is extending its upsurge above 0.6700 on Thursday, delivering its strongest performance in four months, despite mixed Australian jobs data. The pair continues to gainand amid an ongoing US Dollar decline, following a dovish Fed pause.
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
AUD/USD advances towards 0.6800 on upbeat Aussie trade data
AUD/USD is looking to extend its recovery towards 0.6800 after the Australian Trade data beat estimates. The US dollar bulls take a breather following the FOMC Minutes-led upsurge. Investors remain cautious amid looming recession risks.
AUD/USD is looking to extend its recovery towards 0.6800 after the Australian Trade data beat estimates. The US dollar bulls take a breather following the FOMC Minutes-led upsurge. Investors remain cautious amid looming recession risks.
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
Date: 7-4-2022
USD/JPY looks disconnected from US yields and may break short-term support at 134.28/24, economists at Credit Suisse report. The secular trend is up, however, and they see any weakness as corrective before an eventual test of the 137.21 high of September 1998.
USD/JPY looks disconnected to the recent move lower in US yields
“USD/JPY is dramatically losing momentum in the short-term, with a large momentum divergence and cross lower in daily MACD, with the market also looking disconnected from the recent fall in US bond yields.”
USD/JPY looks disconnected from US yields and may break short-term support at 134.28/24, economists at Credit Suisse report. The secular trend is up, however, and they see any weakness as corrective before an eventual test of the 137.21 high of September 1998.
USD/JPY looks disconnected to the recent move lower in US yields
“USD/JPY is dramatically losing momentum in the short-term, with a large momentum divergence and cross lower in daily MACD, with the market also looking disconnected from the recent fall in US bond yields.”
Mahfuzur Rahman Fardun
The AUD/USD pair peaked at 0.6958, meeting sellers around the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily decline between 0.7282 and 0.6855 in the 0.6950 area. The daily chart shows that bears keep control of the pair as it is developing below its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading south at around 0.7050. Technical indicators remain well below their midlines, although lacking directional strength.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. AUD/USD has spent the day consolidating between the aforementioned Fibonacci level and a flat 20 SMA, providing intraday support at 0.6910. Technical indicators have turned marginally lower but remain within neutral levels. Critical support comes at 0.6850, June monthly low. The bearish case will be firmer if the pair breaks below it.
Support levels: 0.6910 0.6880 0.6850
Resistance levels: 0.6955 0.6990 0.7030
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. AUD/USD has spent the day consolidating between the aforementioned Fibonacci level and a flat 20 SMA, providing intraday support at 0.6910. Technical indicators have turned marginally lower but remain within neutral levels. Critical support comes at 0.6850, June monthly low. The bearish case will be firmer if the pair breaks below it.
Support levels: 0.6910 0.6880 0.6850
Resistance levels: 0.6955 0.6990 0.7030