The Conference Board United States Leading Economic Index m/m

Country:
United States
USD, US dollar
Sector:
Business
Low -0.5% -0.3%
-0.2%
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
-0.4%
-0.5%
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
  • Overview
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  • History
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Leading Economic Index m/m reflects a change in the composite index compiled based on a number of leading US macroeconomic indices, in the specified month compared to the previous one. The composite index smooths out the volatility of individual components and identifies the overall direction of the economy. The index is calculated by the Conference Board, the non-profit research organization.

The Leading Economic Index includes ten components:

  • Average weekly hours in the US
  • Average weekly initial claims
  • Orders for durable goods
  • ISM index of new orders in the US manufacturing sector
  • New orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
  • Building permits
  • Stock prices (500 common stocks)
  • Leading credit index
  • Interest rate spread
  • Average consumer expectations for business conditions

Index growth or decline is measured in comparison with the base period as of 2016. The index benchmark in 2016 is set to 100. Therefore, if current index is 104.0, it means it has grown by 4 points.

The indicator is used for forecast purposes. Changes in the ten components included in the index calculation are considered to precede changes in the overall national economy state. Therefore it is also called the index of leading economic indicators.

Many economists closely monitor this index, which allows predicting near-term changes in the country's economy. Representatives of large businesses analyze the index dynamics when making investment decisions.

Index growth can be seen as positive for the US dollar.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "The Conference Board United States Leading Economic Index m/m" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Sep 2024
-0.5%
-0.3%
-0.2%
Aug 2024
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.6%
Jul 2024
-0.6%
-0.2%
-0.2%
Jun 2024
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.5%
May 2024
-0.5%
-0.2%
-0.6%
Apr 2024
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.3%
Mar 2024
-0.3%
0.1%
Feb 2024
0.1%
-0.4%
-0.4%
Jan 2024
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.2%
Dec 2023
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.5%
Nov 2023
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.8%
Oct 2023
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.7%
Sep 2023
-0.7%
-0.4%
-0.4%
Aug 2023
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
Jul 2023
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.7%
Jun 2023
-0.7%
-0.3%
-0.7%
May 2023
-0.7%
0.0%
-0.6%
Apr 2023
-0.6%
0.1%
-1.2%
Mar 2023
-1.2%
0.2%
-0.3%
Feb 2023
-0.3%
0.2%
-0.3%
Jan 2023
-0.3%
0.3%
-1.0%
Dec 2022
-1.0%
0.3%
-1.0%
Nov 2022
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.8%
Oct 2022
-0.8%
0.4%
-0.4%
Sep 2022
-0.4%
0.5%
-0.3%
Aug 2022
-0.3%
0.5%
-0.4%
Jul 2022
-0.4%
0.5%
-0.8%
Jun 2022
-0.8%
0.6%
-0.4%
May 2022
-0.4%
0.6%
-0.4%
Apr 2022
-0.3%
0.7%
0.1%
Mar 2022
0.3%
0.7%
0.6%
Feb 2022
0.3%
0.7%
-0.5%
Jan 2022
-0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
Dec 2021
0.8%
0.6%
0.7%
Nov 2021
1.1%
0.5%
0.9%
Oct 2021
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Sep 2021
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
Aug 2021
0.9%
0.3%
0.8%
Jul 2021
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
Jun 2021
0.7%
0.1%
1.2%
May 2021
1.3%
0.0%
1.3%
Apr 2021
1.6%
0.0%
1.3%
Mar 2021
1.3%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Feb 2021
0.2%
-0.1%
0.5%
Jan 2021
0.5%
-0.1%
0.4%
Dec 2020
0.3%
-0.1%
0.7%
Nov 2020
0.6%
-0.1%
0.8%
Oct 2020
0.7%
-0.1%
0.7%
Sep 2020
0.7%
-0.1%
1.4%
Aug 2020
1.2%
3.1%
2.0%

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