Kremlin comments dismissing yesterday’s reports of major progress in talks with Ukraine has added to the slippage in stocks in early trade. Major bond markets are mostly firmer, with US 10Y yields easing to 2.12% while 2s-10s continues to flatten. WTI crude oil has bounced back to above $99/bbl. Major currencies are little changed. The GBP is firmer ahead of today’s expected BoE hike. The AUD is out-performing following another strong jobs report (+77.4k) in Feb. Yesterday’s FOMC outcome largely met expectations—a 25bps hike, more hikes reflected in the dot plot for the coming year to largely match market pricing (of a 2% Fed Funds rate at the end of this year) plus some additional, if modest tightening, penciled in for the next couple of years beyond that (before backing off very slightly in the long run). Effectively, the Fed is saying that it will hike rates 25bps— at least—at each of its remaining meetings this year, with the economy strong and labour markets very tight. Price action after the Fed was choppy, with the USD selling off and stocks rebounding, however, which was a little perverse but in keeping with the volatility we sometimes see around FOMC decisions. The message from the Fed was hawkish and the outlook for higher rates is USD-supportive, however. Selling the USD is not an option at this point, we feel, and we continue to look for it to remain firm/strengthen further over the balance of this year against those currencies where central bank tightening moves will clearly lag. US data releases this morning include weekly claims, the Philly Fed survey and Industrial Production.
In my Signal provider I had a profit last week of 2.83%, in the month I already accumulate 3.65% profit with a forecast of 83.82% yearly.
