Daily Forex Fundamental Overview
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Manufacturing in the euro area remained stuck in a state of near stagnation, failing to break out of the slow growth phase that has plagued producers since February".
- Chris Williams, Markit's chief economist
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released a rather pessimistic economic research due to Markit PMI announcement which indicates some troubles in Europe. According to the latest released figures, Markit's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for May fell to a reading of 51.5 points, being unchanged from an earlier flash estimate as well as showing the second-weakest reading since February. It is worth to point out that reading came out in line with expectations, while in the previous month; the reading came in at 51.7 exceeding expectations of 51.5. Overall, May PMI announcement signalled a further growth slowdown in the Euro zone manufacturing sector, due to inflows of new business from both domestic and export markets which continue to increase at lacklustre rates. Six out of the eight nations included in the single currency region manufacturing survey reported expansions during May. In the first position of the PMI growth rankings is Netherlands while the third place is occupied by Germany. Also, these countries were the only ones to report faster rates of growth.
Manufacturing production, in turn, in the Euro area advanced for the 35th consecutive month while the rate of rise in new business slowed down to a 15-month low.
USD
"For those looking for a rebound in the economy after the lackluster start to the year, the deteriorating trend in manufacturing is not going to provide any comfort".
- Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist The data for US ISM manufacturing data was stronger than analysts' estimations showing an advance to 51.3 (May) from 50.8 booked in the previous month. The consensus expectation, in turn was 50.5. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the third consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 84th consecutive month, according to the ISM report. The Prices Index in turn, registered 63.5, an advance of 4.5 points from the April reading of 59, indicating higher raw materials prices for the third consecutive month. The main influence on the PMI release was raised due to the decline in production volumes. The following release shows that the sector expanded in May for a third straight month, despite the forecasts of a negative movement following several weak regional surveys. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting rise in May. The top gainers are wood products, textile mills and printing & related Support Activities. However, the six industries, in turn, reported contraction in May which are: apparel, leather & allied products and petroleum & coal Products.
Speculation in recent weeks that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next few months, concerns about Chinese economic growth as well as worries about possible British exit from the European Union, are all factors that affect global manufacturing.
GBP
"So this latest release goes against the grain and is an unexpected piece of good news against the uncertainty ahead of the UK referendum on EU membership".
- David Morrison, Spread Co
Industry data showed that manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom narrowly expanded in May, slightly beating analysts' expectations for it to remain in contraction for a second month. In a report, market research group Markit stated that UK manufacturing PMI increased to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 last month from a reading of 49.4 in April, which had been the first contraction in three years and was revised up from an initial figure of 49.2, while analysts forecasted the index to advance to 49.6 in May.
Nevertheless, the general data still suggests there is an overall lack of confidence with manufacturing still under pressure and the sector will again be a net drag on the economy for the second quarter. Production volumes were broadly unchanged in the latest survey month, as the growth rate of new order inflows remained subdued, albeit slightly quicker than in April. Moreover, there was a negative impact from uncertainty with many companies suggesting that the EU referendum was having a detrimental impact on business. There was notable weakness in the investment-goods sector and strong job cuts in this sector. Overall employment also declined for the fifth successive month, although the pace of decline did slow. The index overall suggests that manufacturing will contract more than 0.5% for the second quarter and will undermine overall GDP data with the economy remaining dependent on the services sector.
AUD
"The headline GDP numbers are going to continue to be flattered by very strong net exports. Which will mean that GDP looks good, but it's not the sort of growth that actually generates any inflation for you ".
- Sally Auld, JP Morgan
Australia's economic growth boomed past expectations in the first quarter with the annual pace speeding to its fastest in three years, a result that could keep the central bank on hold at its policy meeting next week. Gross domestic product grew a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in the three months to the end of March, exceeding market expectations for a 0.8% gain in the first quarter, due to a strong pick-up in resources and services exports. On an annual basis, GDP grew 3.1%, above economists' consensus estimate for 2.8% growth and defying fears that Australia would be hit by slowing growth in China, its biggest trading partner. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the major drivers of growth during the quarter came from exports and household final consumption expenditure, which contributed 1.0 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. Combined with a marginal fall in imports, net exports contribute a whopping 1.1 percentage points to growth during the quarter. These gains were partially offset by weaker public gross fixed capital formation, which shaved 0.4 percentage points from the number.
However, a real net national disposable income, increased by just 0.2% during the quarter after seasonal adjustments, seeing the year-on year decline accelerate to 1.2%. This is seen as a measure of the real standard of living of Australians, and on that measure the economy is not as strong as the real GDP figure would suggest.
