First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- Regarding the future of EUR/USD, the main forecast was that by the end of the week the pair would secure itself in the area of 1.0800. The graphical analysis on H4 specified that at first the pair would reach the bottom at the level of 1.0600, and then make every effort to go up to around 1.0800. That was almost what happened: the pair was falling towards the target throughout the whole week, and on Friday, following the news from the USA, it first fell down to the level of 1.0700, tried to return to the specified area and finished the week at the level of 1.0740.
- As for GBP/USD, we predicted some fluctuations within the boundaries of 1.5440 ÷ 1.5470 at the beginning of the week, after which the pair was supposed to go down. Yet a third of the experts insisted that the weekly bottom would be at the level of 1.5250. This scenario can be considered to be 100% fulfilled, except for the fact that the statistics from Europe and the USA, supported by the speech of the President of the ECB Mr Draghi, boosted the "bears" so much that they were able to force the pair down by yet another 200 points - to the level of 1.5025.
- Speaking of USD/JPY, almost everyone agreed on the fact that the Pivot Point would again pass through the line of 121.50, and that the pair would not cease its attempts to reach at least the level of 122.00. All was going well until the publication of data from the USA on Friday, after which the pair not only achieved that goal, but also, without stopping for a second, flew up, calming down only in the area of 123.20.
- Up and only up! - that was the forecast for USD/CHF last week, with the ultimate goal at the zone of 1.0000 ÷ 1.0100, right in the middle of which the pair stopped on Friday night. This forecast can be considered to have been fulfilled by 100% without any reservations.
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The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts based on the most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- While most indicators, when predicting the future of EUR/USD, insist on further falling of the pair, the majority of experts and graphical analysis on H1 are inclined to believe that the pair will take a break and move in a sideways channel within the boundaries of 1.0650 ÷ 1.0850. At the same time, 15% of analysts believe that the pair will manage to break through resistance at 1.0900 and will even reach 1.1000.
- A similar pattern is observed for GBP/USD. The sideways trend for it is limited by support at 1.4950, resistance at 1.5220 and by the Pivot Point of 1.5000. Despite the vast majority of experts talking about a "bullish" trend, 10% of them believe that the pair may briefly come down to the level of 1.4850.
- Yet for USD/JPY, of greatest interest are the indications of graphical analysis. According to its forecast on H1, the pair may first grow to the level of 123.50 ÷ 124.00 (50% of the experts agree), and then abruptly go down. Graphical analysis on H4, 60% of analysts and indicators on D1 believe that a Pivot Point of 121.70 ÷ 122.00 with support at 121.00 area is a just scenario. As for the forecast for up to the end of the year, both experts and graphical analysis on D1 name the height of 125.30 as the ultimate goal.
- Regarding USD/CHF, graphical analysis on D1 does not rule out the possibility of the pair trying to catch up to its maximum of 1.0210, which took place before "Black Thursday" (January 15th), followed by sharp drop downwards. Analysts unanimously assert that the pair has already reached its goal for the nearest future, and now will only oscillate around the signature mark of 1.0000. The main support will be at 0.9950, and after that at 0.9845. The nearest resistance will be 1.0100, and the next, as has been said - 1.0210.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
